Canada's economy experienced a modest 0.3% growth in GDP during May. However, it is projected that this growth may slow down in June, with an expected decrease of 0.2%. If this projection holds true, it would result in a 1.2% increase in the economy for Q2 of 2023, which is lower than the previous quarter's 3.4% increase and also falls short of the Bank of Canada's initial estimate of a 1.5% increase for Q2. The slowdown in economic growth has been a focal point for the Bank of Canada, and it may impact their decision on implementing another rate hike in September.

Given the recent economic performance and projections, there could be potential implications for the Fall Real Estate Market. The lower-than-expected GDP growth may affect consumer confidence and spending patterns. However, the overall impact on the real estate market will depend on various factors, including inflation rates and interest rates, which are yet to be announced.

To have a clearer picture of how the Fall Real Estate Market may be affected, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the upcoming updates on inflation (August 10th) and GDP for Canada (September 1st), as well as the rate announcement on September 6th. These key economic indicators will provide valuable insights into the direction of the economy and its potential impact on the real estate sector.

That said, the biggest factor for real estate in recent months has been interest rates. As we have seen throughout 2023 when interest rates stabilize more buyers enter the market and that puts upward pressure on pricing.

Below you can find a schedule of all Bank of Canada interest rate announcements for the remainder of 2023:

• Wednesday, September 6
• Wednesday, October 25* Monetary Policy Report Published
• Wednesday, December 6

Sources: Bank of Canada News / Summary provided by Steven J. King, Principal Broker at Verico SGH Mortgages Inc. 

The market was more balanced in July

The market was more balanced in the Durham Region, yet still considered a seller's market* with only 2 months of inventory despite a decline in sales and average price across the region in July.

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What's the Takeaway?

The market has slowed down slightly in July but historically the dog days of summer are when demand decreases due to buyers putting off their searches. However, buyers could also be feeling the results of June’s interest rate announcement when the Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 0.25%.

Sellers need to stay abreast of market conditions especially as we head into September when the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement will take place.

Buyers can take advantage of summer months with a little less competition and perhaps feel a little less rushed with average days on the market increasing.

What should we expect for the Fall Market?

Is this month’s sales a result of seasonality or the Bank of Canada’s interest rate increase in June? That is the question. It’s likely a little of both. If September brings another rate increase we can expect that to further impact purchasing power and in turn sales and pricing in the Durham Region.

If not the Fall Market may bring more buyers back into the market and increase competition for a limited supply of homes.

Read How will Canada’s Economy Impact the Fall Market

As always follow us and reach out with any questions you have on this ever-evolving real estate market.

*What constitutes a seller's, buyer's, or balanced market?

• 2 or fewer months of inventory is a seller's market
• 3-4 months of inventory is a balanced market
• 5+ months of inventory is a buyers market

If no new properties came on the market it would take less than 2 months to sell all the available homes.