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 NOW AVAILABLE: 2017 Market Year in Review & Outlook Report 2018

 

 

 

January 30, 2018 -- TREB is proud to announce the release of our third annual Market Year in Review & Outlook Report – viewable in a handy flip version or downloadable PDF. 

This year's report, subtitled Steering the Way to Housing & Transportation Diversity in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, explores some of the most important issues affecting our industry today. 

A must-read for Members looking to gain new insight on the GTA housing market, as well as the policies and economic issues that impact the wider GGH, this in-depth report is informed by hard-dataand groundbreaking research from TREB and our partners, and will engage you from cover to cover.

Some of the exciting content and topics you can read about in this year' s report include: 

  • Market Year in Review: The Market in 2017 
      • A look at how the market unfolded in 2017, featuring a review of TREB MLS® System statistics and TREB-commissioned Ipsos surveys of homeowners 
  • Market Outlook: Looking Ahead to 2018 
    • Features a forecast of the year to come, in terms of sales, listings and home prices. This outlook will also include results of a TREB-commissioned Ipsos survey of intending home buyers and sellers 

A look at the economic impact (spin-off spending, job creation, taxes paid) of resale and new home sales in the GTA 

    • Submissions from government policymakers on their approach to better transit and transportation policy, new research from the C.D. Howe Institute on addressing the issue of mobility and traffic congestion, and an exciting take from the Toronto Region Board of Trade on the smooth movement of people and goods 

 

    • Research from the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis on the missing middleand creating diverse housing stock in the Greater Golden Horseshoe 

 

  • A glimpse at the New Home and Commercial market segments

 

 

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Fallingbrook 4 Bedroom - 2017 4th Quarter Sales Stats

 

 

 

Fallingbrook 4 Bedroom - 2017 3rd Quarter Sales Stats




Fallingbrook 4 Bedroom - 2017 2nd Quarter Sales Stats




Fallingbrook 4 Bedroom - 2017 1st Quarter Sales Stats


 

 

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The Bank of Canada pushed forward with another quarter-point interest rate increase and said more hikes are likely coming, even as it cautioned it isn't in any rush to return rates to more normal levels.


Policy makers led by Governor Stephen Poloz increased the benchmark overnight rate to 1.25 percent, the highest since the global recession and their third hike since July. The move is a nod to a red-hot economy running up against capacity with a jobless rate at the lowest in more than four decades.

At the same time, central bank officials repeated their dovish language about moving ahead cautiously and warned they expect the economy will require continued stimulus to remain at capacity.

“While the economic outlook is expected to warrant higher interest rates over time, some continued monetary policy accommodation will likely be needed to keep the economy operating close to potential and inflation on target,” the Bank of Canada said Wednesday in a statement from Ottawa. “Governing Council will remain cautious in considering future policy adjustments.”

Key Takeaways

  • In raising rates, the Bank of Canada points to strong data, inflation at target and economy at capacity -- and says more hikes are expected.
  • At the same time, it retains cautious language about future adjustments and adds new language around the need for continued monetary accommodation
  • The central bank cites growing risks around North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations, which are “weighing increasingly” on Canada's economic outlook

Canada becomes the first major central bank to move ahead with a rate increase in 2018. Investors have spent the early days of the year watching central banks around the world for signs the period of extraordinary stimulus is coming to an end. The Bank of Japan jolted bond markets with a surprise change to its purchasing program, while some European Central Bank officials have called for their bond-buying program to end in September.

Striking Balance

For months, Poloz has been trying to strike a balance between gradually bringing interest rates back to more normal levels amid faster-than-expected growth and an employment boom, without triggering a slowdown.

A recent run of strong economic data has made that task more difficult, and the improved outlook was evident throughout Wednesday's rate statement and monetary policy report.

The central bank painted a picture of an economy with inflation already close to target, output largely at capacity, a stronger- than-expected housing sector, and a faster-than-expected reduction in labor market slack.

That prompted officials to increase their projections for inflation in 2018, and growth over the next two years.

The reasons to remain cautious are less tangible, centered around growing concerns about the outcome of Nafta negotiations.

“Uncertainty surrounding the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement is clouding the economic outlook,” the central bank said.

Rate Sensitivity

There are also questions about the economy's sensitivity to interest rate increases and whether its potential growth could be accelerating. The bank said wage gains remain modest, even with a recent pickup.

The Bank of Canada forecast a bigger hit on exports and business investment due to worries about Nafta, and incorporated an increased sensitivity of interest rates because of the country's high household debt levels.

The rate increase was expected by 26 of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and investors had almost fully priced in a hike.

Questions remain about how quickly the central bank will raise from here and where rates will eventually settle. Markets had been pricing in at least three increases this year, which would bring the benchmark rate to 1.75 percent.

The Bank of Canada retained its estimate that its so-called neutral rate -- a sort of Goldilocks rate that keeps the economy neither too hot nor too cold -- is at about 3 percent. But the comments on the need for continued accommodation at full capacity could suggest policy makers aren't anticipating a return to neutral any time soon.

The central bank also increased its forecast for how quickly the economy could grow without triggering inflation -- to an average of 1.6 percent over the projection horizon. The central bank said it is monitoring the extent to which strong demand could boost potential growth further.

“In this respect, capital investment, firm creation, labor force participation, and hours worked are all showing promising signs,” it said, adding that wages have picked up by less than what “would be typical” for a labor market without slack.

Copyright Bloomberg News

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January 4, 2018 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 92,394 sales through TREB's MLS® System in 2017. This total was down 18.3 per cent compared to the record set in 2016.

 

Record sales in Q1 were followed by a decline in Q2 and Q3 after the Ontario Fair Housing Plan (FHP) was announced. The pace of sales picked up in Q4, as the impact of the FHP started to wane, and some buyers arguably brought forward their home purchase in response to the new OSFI stress test guidelines effective January 1, 2018.

"Much of the sales volatility in 2017 was brought about by government policy decisions. Research from TREB, the provincial government and Statistics Canada showed that foreign home buying was not a major driver of sales in the GTA. However, the Ontario Fair Housing Plan, which included a foreign buyer tax, had a marked psychological impact on the marketplace. Looking forward, government policy could continue to influence consumer behavior in 2018, as changes to federal mortgage lending guidelines come into effect," said Mr. Syrianos.

 

The average selling price for 2017 as a whole was $822,681 – up 12.7 per cent compared to 2016. This annual growth was driven more so by extremely tight market conditions during the first four months of the year. In the latter two-thirds of 2017, fewer sales combined with increased listings resulted in slower price growth. In December, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 7.2 per cent year over year, and the overall average selling price was up by 0.7 per cent year over year.

 

"It is interesting to note that home price growth in the second half of 2017 differed substantially depending on market segment. The detached market segment – the most expensive on average – experienced the slowest pace of growth as many buyers looked to less expensive options. Conversely, the condominium apartment segment experienced double-digit growth, as condos accounted for a growing share of transactions," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

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