Greetings, GTA homebuyers and sellers! As we step into June, it's time to reflect on the dynamic real estate landscape that unfolded throughout May 2024. Join us as we uncover the latest insights and trends from the past month, offering a clear perspective on what May's market stats mean for your real estate journey. At Jim Stanton & Associates, our commitment to providing you with valuable information remains steadfast. Let's explore together the opportunities and possibilities that await in the ever-evolving GTA market.

Market Summary: In May 2024, the GTA real estate market showed mixed signals:

• Sales Momentum: Compared to the same period last year, sales decreased by 21.7%. There was a month-over-month decrease of 1.42%.

• Listing Dynamics: New listings were up 21.1% from 2023 and 9.9% month-over-month.

• Active Listings: Active listings saw a significant increase, up 83.3% from 2023 and 20.3% from April 2024.

• Price Trends: The average price for homes was down 2.5% year-over-year but saw a slight increase of 0.8% month-over-month.

• Balanced Market: With 3 months of inventory available, the market was balanced.

• Time to Sell: Days on Market remained stable month-over-month.

Click here to view the TRREB Market Watch Report for May 2024

What's happening? Toronto Market Insights

Interest Rates

On June 5th, the Bank of Canada decreased its policy interest rate by 25 basis points. This is the first move since July 2023 and the first reduction since it began increasing the rate in March 2022 from its record low of 0.25%. The last time interest rates were lowered by the Bank of Canada was when the Bank dropped rates to an all-time low at the onset of the pandemic in March 2023.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

Buyers are poised to benefit from the recent interest rate reduction, which is expected to increase buying power and push more buyers into the market. As a general rule of thumb, a ¼ point decrease in interest rates adds about $10,000 to the average borrower's buying power, though this depends on individual circumstances. However, with more buying power, competition is likely to heat up, especially for entry-level homes. Lower rates can be tempting, but remember that while waiting for further reductions, competition will likely increase. If you buy now, you pay today's prices and can always refinance at a lower rate later. Waiting might get you a lower rate, but you'll likely be paying a higher price.

For Sellers:

Luxury homes have been taking longer to sell in the higher interest rate environment. Hang in there; lower rates may bring more buyers. Expect competition to increase even more on entry-level homes like townhomes and links. These homes are always in demand, and these changes will only spur more competition. With rates finally starting to come down, now is the time to plan your next move. Information is power, and you only benefit by starting the process now.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, May 2024 witnessed a mix of trends in the GTA real estate market, presenting a balanced environment for both buyers and sellers alike. Despite fluctuations in sales compared to last year, there was a notable month-over-month decrease. The surge in new and active listings indicates a healthy influx of properties, while pricing trends remained relatively stable. With inventory levels maintaining a balance, the market is poised for potential changes depending on the upcoming interest rate adjustments. Looking ahead, proactive engagement will be key for both buyers and sellers to capitalize on emerging opportunities. At Jim Stanton & Associates, we're dedicated to providing the guidance and support necessary for navigating this dynamic landscape effectively.

Get the Help You Need:

Regardless of the statistics and the market, you have your own reasons for making a move. A big life event, ambitions, the need to upsize or downsize, or even relocate. The key is to ensure you have someone in your corner representing your best interests. Let us be your guide. Contact Us Today!

Call Ben at 905-995-3372

January Market Update

 In January 2024, the average selling price of homes across the GTA experienced a one percent year-over-year decline, settling at $1,026,703 according to The MLS® Home Price Index Composite. While home sales increased compared to the same month in 2023. This rise was partly due to certain homebuyers taking advantage of lower interest rates linked to fixed-rate mortgages. While new property listings also saw a year-over-year increase, the growth rate was lower than that of home sales. The resulting tighter market conditions, compared to the previous year, suggest the possibility of renewed price growth as we transition into the spring market. Essentially, the increased demand, coupled with a more modest increase in available homes, may contribute to a potential uptick in housing prices.

 Toronto Market Insights

1920x965-January 2024 Market Stats Toronto by Ben Stanton

What we are seeing on the ground

In a market characterized by both increased sales and a surge in property listings, home buyers and sellers find themselves navigating a dynamic and competitive landscape. The spike in listings provides buyers with a broader array of options, but the heightened demand, particularly in the lower price range, has resulted in more properties receiving multiple offers. Despite the competitive atmosphere, there remains ample opportunity for savvy buyers to find a suitable property and engage in negotiations. Sellers, on the other hand, are benefiting from the renewed demand, potentially receiving more attractive offers. Overall, the market's equilibrium between increased sales and listings creates an environment where both buyers and sellers must adapt to changing dynamics while recognizing opportunities for successful transactions.

 In a news release the federal government has announced that it will be extending the: Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act,

Known as “the Foreign Buyers Ban” for an additional 2 years. This means the ban on foreign buyers will be in place until at least 2027. 

Key Highlights of the Act include:

• The Act defines residential property as buildings with 3 dwelling units or less. This includes semi-detached houses and condominium units. The Act doesn’t prohibit the purchase of larger buildings with 4 or more dwelling units.
• Non-Canadians can purchase residential properties located outside of Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) and Census Agglomerations (CA). CMA is defined as having a population of over 100,000 with 50,000 or more living in the core. CA defined as having a population of over 10,000.

*contact me today to find out what areas are not included in this ban.

• Certain exceptions apply allowing Non-Canadians to purchase a residential property in defined circumstances. Including temporary residents working or studying in Canada, refugees and non-Canadian spouses or common law partners buying with their partner or spouse who is Canadian or has an exemption.
• If a non-Canadian, or anyone who knowingly assists a non-Canadian, is convicted of violating the prohibition, they will have to pay a fine of up to $10,000. Additionally, a court can order the sale of the residential property.

Source: CMHC

 I hope you found this information helpful and please feel free to reach out if you have any questions relating to this or anything else real estate related.

The city of Toronto says on its website that the goal of the Vacant Home Tax (VHT) is to increase the supply of housing by discouraging owners from leaving their residential properties unoccupied. Homeowners who choose to keep their properties vacant will be subject to a tax of one percent of the property's Current Value Assessment. Revenues collected from the Vacant Home Tax will be allocated towards affordable housing initiatives.

Owners of properties in Toronto that are classified within the residential property tax class are required to declare occupancy status every year. The deadline to declare is February 29, 2024.

Use the URL below to get to the City of Toronto webpage to submit your declaration.

https://www.toronto.ca/services-payments/property-taxes-utilities/vacant-home-tax/vacant-home-tax-declaration-of-occupancy-status/

If you do not qualify for an exemption, the city will send you a notice at the end of March showing your VHT amount owing. Payment will be due in three installments in May, June and July.

What’s next: A Reflection on 2023 and a look ahead to 2024

2023 Summary for the GTA

Home sales were down in 2023. Buyers who stuck it out through higher interest rates in 2023 benefited from more choice and more negotiating power which resulted in paying lower prices when compared to 2022. 

• Home Sales saw a 12.1 per cent dip compared to 2022.

• Average sold prices across home types in 2023 saw a 5.4 per cent decline compared to 2022 bringing average sold price down to $1,126,604.

Outlook for 2024

There is little consensus on the future of the real estate market in 2024. Aside from the fact that most experts expect some relief in the Bank of Canada’s Policy rate which should help with borrowing costs for homeowners and would-be buyers. Experts are divided on exactly when, how many and how big an impact interest rate cuts will have. 

The main factors affecting real estate forecasts in 2024.

• When and how much will the BoC reduce its policy rate in 2024? (2024 BoC announcement schedule)

• Will changes in variable and fixed rate mortgages be enough to bring buyers back?

• How will homeowners up for renewal deal with rising financing costs?

2 Potential Outcomes and Everything in Between

A Return to a Sellers Market

If interest rates do come down in 2024 we will see more buyers enter the market. The question is, how many rate cuts could we see and how low could rates go? In March of 2023 a mere pause at 4.5% sent us back into a brief Sellers Market. If that happens again buyers who stay on the fence will regret it. It’s unlikely that we see the kind of pandemic sales we saw but it remains possible that the combination of high immigration, rising rent costs and lower interest rates increases competition for homes in 2024.

A Balanced Market

An environment with modestly lower interest rates could yield a continuation of the current balanced market. This is especially true if inventory remains at 3-4 months worth. Sellers looking to downsize, move up or relocate may be more likely to move when interest rates drop and sellers who are renewing mortgages at a cost that may be too high might decide to sell. This would bring more homes on the market and offset any increases in demand. This seems like the safe bet and most likely outcome to us.

For the Doom Scrollers

The other possibility is for those who love bad news. According to RateHub.ca 80% of all mortgages that were outstanding as of March 2022 will come up for renewal in 2024. That means those borrowers will be renewing at a much higher rate. Per Statistics Canada, mortgage interest payments have soared by nearly 90% since March 2022. Some are forecasting a high volume of distressed sales which if enough homes come on the market without buyers continue to put downward pressure on home prices throughout 2024. This inventory of course would have to outpace demand from new buyers entering the market as interest rates come down. Another factor of note is that for 2024 alone this pool only represents 14% of all mortgages in Canada which relative to the total number of homeowners is very small and Canada’s mortgage stress test will have buffered some of the risk for many of these homeowners.

Our Point of View

For our part the most likely scenario is a balanced market where the push/pull effect of higher interest rates pushing some buyers off and some sellers in while immigration and a slow reduction in interest rates bolster demand could offset one another enough to balance the market in 2024. 

That said if interest rates become too attractive and more buyers enter the market we could see competition for homes pick-up in 2024.

What do you think will happen in 2024?

The Open Offer Process

How will more transparency change the offer process?

As housing costs have risen and inventory remains well below demand, multiple offer situations have increased dramatically. Buyers and sellers have demanded more transparency.

In response to that the government has introduced an Open Offer Process with new legislation under TRESA (Trust in Real Estate Services Act 2002) which came into effect as part of phase 2 of the act on December 1, 2023.

So what does this mean going forward?

The Open Offer Process does not mean all multiple offers will be disclosed from here on out. Sellers will be the ones to decide what if anything they will disclose in the offer process.

Here are the key takeaways:

1. Sellers initiate the Open Offer Process

2. Sellers can initiate this at any time in the offer process

3. Sellers decide what to disclose (ex; price, terms, etc.)

4. Sellers do not have to disclose that information from all offers received

5. If offer details are being disclosed, all buyers must receive the information

6. Sellers must not disclose any personal identifying information about buyers

7. Sellers must still disclose the number of registered offers to all interested parties

Watch TRREBs Video

Download the Infographic 

How does this impact you as a Seller?

Sellers can now determine whether they would like to sell their home under the traditional blind bidding process in which buyers are only notified how many offers are registered, or they can choose to disclose select information about one or more offers to all buyers involved. There are advantages and risks to this process but it can open up a myriad of options for sellers and become a powerful negotiating tool to encourage buyers to submit their highest and best offer.

How does this impact you as a Buyer?

For Buyers, it provides some extra consideration when drafting an offer. Knowing that the price or terms of your offer may be disclosed to other buyers can affect your decision to make an offer in the first place. Given the seller determines the process and that they have complete control of when and if they disclose offer information you need to go into each offer fully informed. 

As with Sellers, there are advantages and disadvantages of knowing the terms of competing offers. Knowing how your offer stacks up against competitors can help you negotiate, but you may not always have a complete picture. Sellers are not obliged to provide information on all the competing offers nor are they obliged to provide all the terms on a given offer. 

So how can you come out on top?

This is where working with an experienced Realtor and negotiator is essential. You need someone in your corner who understands the strategies being deployed and can use the available information to help you make strong and secure decisions. We are laser-focused on helping our clients achieve their goals through powerful negotiations and providing valuable insights to help you every step of the way.

Call to book a free Real Estate Consultation with us - 905-995-3372

While the stats show home prices have increased in the month of October 2023 compared to the same time last year, prices remained relatively flat from the previous month. The big change we are seeing is the inventory levels are way up and the sales volume is down.

This presents an opportunity for buyers. You can likely avoid competing on a property and negotiate on price and terms, which has'nt always been an option for succesful buyers in recent years. If you own your current home and are looking to move, it may be wise to sell first. This ensures you don't over extend on your purchase and can upgrade/downsize with confidence. 

Homes are taking longer to sell and we are seeing alot of terminated listings and price adjustments. The properties that are selling are the ones priced correctly to today's market conditions. If you want to get your property sold then the correct pricing and presentation are extremly important.

Another segmemt of the market that is feeling the impact of high interest rates is new home and pre-construction sales. We are noticing that there are a growing number of assignment sales being offered at a discount from the original purchase price. If you are considering purchasing an assignment it is imperative that you have representation and have the contract reviewed thoroughly. 

What's next for the real estate market in Toronto, well nobody knows for sure. With so many mortgages set to renew in the next few years we will certainly be watching and waiting to see what happens with interest rates moving forward.

Higher interest rates are working to ease price pressures in Canada and inflation is coming down, though progress to the 2% target is slow. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3½% until the middle of 2024, returning to target in 2025.

Source. Bank of Canada, Monetary Policy Report. October 2023

Are you waiting for interest rates to come down before making a purchase? This might not be a wise move. The Toronto real estate market is very competitive and there are many potential buyers with the same idea. When rates start dropping, you can bet that the market will change fast and we could be right back where we've been in the past with bidding wars causing home values to skyrocket. Talk to a mortgage specialist and determine what monthly payments you can afford and go with a term that will allow you to take advantage of future rate drops. You'll be paying higher carrying costs out of the gate, but you'll likely save on the purchase price and land transfer taxes. If prices do appreciate quickly once rates start dropping, you'll already be building equity.