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February saw the GTA average price climb back above the $1 million mark, but with nearly five months of inventory, buyers still hold the cards as we head toward the spring market.
🔍 By the Numbers: February at a Glance
Total Sales: 3,868 (–6.3% YoY, +25.5% MoM)
Average Selling Price: $1,008,968 (–7.1% YoY, +3.7% MoM)
Active Listings: 19,314 (–2.4% YoY, +7.4% MoM)
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio: ~36%
Days on Market:
Property DOM: 54 days
Listing DOM: 36 days
Months of Inventory: 4.99 months — Balanced overall, but continuing to favor buyers.
🧠 Top Takeaway
While sales activity jumped 25% compared to a quiet January, the market remains in a tug-of-war. New listings are down nearly 18% year-over-year, which is actually tightening conditions in some pockets—yet the overall inventory level of nearly 5 months ensures that buyers aren't feeling the typical spring "pressure" just yet.
What's happening locally? Durham Region Market Insights
Every city and town is unique. While the broader GTA is leaning buyer-friendly, Durham remains the region's "hot pocket" for sellers.
🏘 Segment Performance
Condos
~ 28.1% of total sales
Average Price: $626,650
6.57 months of supply → Remains a Firm Buyer’s Market.
Detached Homes
~ 43.5% of total sales
Average Price: $1,325,654
4.8 months of supply → Balanced Market.
Durham Region
454 Sales | Average Price: $850,304
3.6 months of inventory → Balanced conditions. Durham continues to outperform the broader GTA in terms of seller-favorable conditions.
City of Toronto
4.96 months of inventory → Balanced Market. While still favoring buyers, the 416 became significantly more balanced in February compared to the start of the year.
🏦 Economic & Financing Context
Bank of Canada Outlook: The BoC held the policy rate at 2.25% in January. All eyes are now on the March 18 announcement. Most major banks (BMO, RBC, TD) forecast another hold at 2.25%, as the Bank waits to see the full impact of trade uncertainty and recent inflation data.
The Bond Market & Fixed Rates: Government of Canada 5-year bond yields have hovered around 2.7%. This stability has kept 5-year fixed mortgage rates in a predictable range (approx. 3.89% – 4.55% depending on the lender), providing a "stability window" for those looking to lock in before any potential spring volatility.
The "Wait and See" Effect: TRREB notes that over 100,000 potential buyers are currently sidelined, waiting for prices to fully level off or for positive news regarding international trade.
🔄 What this means for you?
For Buyers:
The "herd mentality" hasn't kicked in yet. While the average price moved back over $1M, the 4.99 months of inventory means you still have room to negotiate. The window to buy before the "pent-up demand" (estimated at 100k+ buyers) returns is still open.
For Sellers:
Inventory is slowly rising (+7.4% MoM), but new listings are actually down 17.7% compared to last year. This means that if you have a well-prepared, properly priced home, you have less new competition than you might think. Strategic pricing remains the #1 factor in a 5-month inventory market.
🔮 Quick Verdict
📞 Get our family working for yours
Whether you’re planning to buy, sell, or simply get a grasp of what lies ahead, we’re here to help you make informed, confident real estate decisions. The market is showing signs of a "second-half" surge—don't wait until the competition heats up to build your strategy.
👉 Contact us today to navigate the spring market with confidence.
