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Spring is stirring: March home sales jumped over 30% from February as buyers moved to capitalize on improved affordability and significant negotiating power before the market tightens further.
🔍 By the Numbers: March at a Glance
Total Sales: 5,039 (+1.7% YoY, +30.27% MoM)
Average Selling Price: $1,017,796 (–6.7% YoY, +0.9% MoM)
Active Listings: 21,596 (–8.0% YoY, +11.8% MoM)
New Listings: 14,442 (–16.7% YoY)
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio: 35% (Up from 29% last year)
Days on Market:
Property DOM: 47 days (Down 13% from February)
Listing DOM: 31 days
Months of Inventory: 4.29 months — Market remains BALANCED.
🧠 Top Takeaway
The "Spring Surge" has arrived, but with a twist. While sales volume skyrocketed 30% month-over-month, new listings fell nearly 17% compared to last year. This tightening of supply means that while buyers still enjoy negotiating power today, the window of "flat" pricing may be closing as we move deeper into 2026.
What's happening locally? Durham Region Market Insights
While the broader GTA sits in balanced territory, local pockets like Durham are showing signs of a much faster recovery.
🏘 Segment Performance
Condos
~ 28.2% of total sales
Average Price: $620,479
5.4 months of supply → Remains a Firm Buyer’s Market, though inventory is being absorbed faster as new listings fail to keep pace with sales.
Detached Homes
~ 44.4% of total sales
Average Price: $1,342,375
4.17 months of supply → Balanced Market.
Durham Region
392 Sales | Average Price: $850,304
2.96 months of inventory → Inventory has dipped below the 3-month mark, a strong signal for sellers. Durham continues to be the GTA's top performer for seller-favorable conditions.
City of Toronto
951 Sales | 4,912 Listings
5.17 months of inventory → Buyer’s Market. The 416 remains the best bet for buyers looking for maximum choice.
🏦 Economic & Financing Context
Bank of Canada: The policy rate was held steady at 2.25% on March 18, 2026. The next announcement is set for April 29, with markets pricing in a 96% chance of another hold.
Bond Market & Fixed Rates: 5-year Government of Canada bond yields are hovering near 3.06%. This has caused some fixed mortgage rates to edge slightly higher recently, making the cost of "breaking" a mortgage more expensive for some.
The "Renewal Crunch": A recent TD study found that 56% of homeowners are cutting discretionary spending to prepare for higher payments at renewal.
Stirring Demand: Despite renewal stress, 30% of prospective buyers say they are more likely to purchase before year-end, citing lower prices and rate stability as the primary "green lights".
🔄 What this means for you?
For Buyers:
The surface is beginning to bubble. While you still have "substantial negotiating power", the 16.7% drop in new listings suggests that the massive inventory selection we saw in January is starting to be absorbed. If you are one of the 75% of buyers currently saving for a down payment, now is the time to finalize your pre-approval before the "missing middle" supply tightens further.
For Sellers:
Inventory in the GTA is currently 8% lower than last year. In areas like Durham, where inventory is under 3 months, you are in a much stronger position than the "Buyer's Market" headlines suggest. With properties selling 13% faster than last month, the market is picking up speed—but correct pricing remains the bridge to a successful sale.
🔮 Quick Verdict
📞 Get our family working for yours
The market is shifting from "wait and see" to "active and moving." A cookie-cutter approach won't work when one neighborhood is in a Buyer's Market and the next is leaning toward Sellers. If you need help navigating these tightening conditions, reach out. We tailor our strategy to meet your unique goals.
👉 Contact us today to stay ahead of the spring market curve.
📌 Supporting Sources
TRREB Market Watch (March 2026): https://trreb.ca/market-data/market-watch/
TD Survey on Homeowner Spending: Cantech Letter / TD News Release
Bank of Canada Rate Announcement (March 18): RBC Economics
Mortgage Rate Trends: Canadian Mortgage Trends
