January Market Update

In January 2024, the average selling price of homes across the GTA experienced a one percent year-over-year decline, settling at $1,026,703 according to The MLS® Home Price Index Composite.

Home sales increased compared to the same month in 2023. This rise was partly due to certain homebuyers taking advantage of lower interest rates linked to fixed-rate mortgages.

New property listings also saw a year-over-year increase, the growth rate was lower than that of home sales resulting in tighter market conditions, compared to the previous year, suggesting the possibility of renewed price growth as we transition into the spring market.

The increased demand, coupled with a more modest increase in available homes, may contribute to a potential uptick in housing prices.

Durham & Toronto Market Insights

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January 2024 Market Stats Durham

Reflecting on last month's post

Last month we proposed the ways our housing market could go in 2024 largely hinging on the potential for mortgage rates to come down based on a reduction in the Bank of Canada's (BoC) policy and that of the fixed-rate bond market.

Well if January is any indication a return to a Seller's Market is imminent. With the BoC pausing rates for the 4th consecutive decision in January and fixed rates looking more favorable buyers have gotten a head start on the Spring Market.

What we are seeing on the ground

In a market characterized by both increased sales and a surge in property listings, home buyers and sellers find themselves navigating a dynamic and competitive landscape.

For Buyers

The spike in listings provides buyers with a broader array of options, but the heightened demand, particularly in the lower price range, has resulted in more properties receiving multiple offers. Despite the competitive atmosphere, there remains ample opportunity for savvy buyers to find a suitable property and engage in negotiations.

For Sellers

Sellers, on the other hand, are benefiting from the renewed demand, potentially receiving more attractive offers. Overall, the market's equilibrium between increased sales and listings creates an environment where both buyers and sellers must adapt to changing dynamics while recognizing opportunities for successful transactions.

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (add stats for Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

January 2024 Market Stats Markham Stouffeville

December Market Update

The average home price was $1,084,692 in December up 3.2% year-over-year across the GTA in December and flat month-over-month.

Active listings were up compared to 2022 yet down 38.12% vs. November this year. However, a reduction in listings in December is normal through the holiday season. 

Days on Market increased as well both year-over-year and month-over-month.

With 3 months of inventory, the GTA Housing Market was balanced in December 2023.

Durham & Toronto Market Insights

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December 2023 Market Stats Durham

December 2023 Market Stats Toronto

What we are seeing on the ground. 

For Buyers

When a market is more balanced and not favouring one side or the other negotiations become more important for buyers and sellers. We continue to see offers accepted with conditions included. It’s become the norm for offers to include Home Inspection and Financing clauses. Beyond understanding the market value for homes and what to offer, Buyers need to go in with the right clauses to give them peace of mind. Sellers need to evaluate offers on more than just price and ensure their agent is qualifying buyers as best as possible when considering an offer.

For Sellers

Many sellers terminated their listings in December as the buyer pool shrunk with the holiday season and our expectation is many will relist in the new year. We have noticed several listings have gone through price changes or were terminated and relisted with new pricing in the last quarter of 2023. For sellers, this is where it is key to know the value of your home, how much you need to get to make the move you want, and what pricing strategy will be most effective in your local market.

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (add stats for Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

While the stats show GTA home prices have increased in the month of October 2023 compared to the same time last year, prices remained relatively flat from the previous month. The big change we are seeing is the inventory levels are way up and the sales volume is down.

Durham & Toronto Market Insights

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What it means for Buyers & Sellers

This presents an opportunity for buyers. You can likely avoid competing on a property and negotiate on price and terms, which hasn't always been an option for successful buyers in recent years. If you own your current home and are looking to move, it may be wise to sell first. This ensures you don't overextend on your purchase and can upgrade/downsize with confidence.

Sellers Need to Match the Market

Homes are taking longer to sell and we are seeing a lot of terminated listings and price adjustments. The properties that are selling are the ones priced correctly to today's market conditions. If you want to get your property sold then the correct pricing and presentation are extremely important.

Impact on New Home & Pre-Construction Sales

Another segment of the market that is feeling the impact of high-interest rates is new home and pre-construction sales. We are noticing that there is a growing number of assignment sales being offered at a discount from the original purchase price. If you are considering purchasing an assignment it is imperative that you have representation and have the contract reviewed thoroughly. 

What's Next

What's next for the real estate market in the GTA, well nobody knows for sure. With so many mortgages set to renew in the next few years, we will certainly be watching and waiting to see what happens with interest rates moving forward.

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS

October 2023 Market Stats Markham Stouffville

October 2023 Market Stats Northumberland

The market was more balanced in July

The market was more balanced in the Durham Region, yet still considered a seller's market* with only 2 months of inventory despite a decline in sales and average price across the region in July.

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What's the Takeaway?

The market has slowed down slightly in July but historically the dog days of summer are when demand decreases due to buyers putting off their searches. However, buyers could also be feeling the results of June’s interest rate announcement when the Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 0.25%.

Sellers need to stay abreast of market conditions especially as we head into September when the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement will take place.

Buyers can take advantage of summer months with a little less competition and perhaps feel a little less rushed with average days on the market increasing.

What should we expect for the Fall Market?

Is this month’s sales a result of seasonality or the Bank of Canada’s interest rate increase in June? That is the question. It’s likely a little of both. If September brings another rate increase we can expect that to further impact purchasing power and in turn sales and pricing in the Durham Region.

If not the Fall Market may bring more buyers back into the market and increase competition for a limited supply of homes.

Read How will Canada’s Economy Impact the Fall Market

As always follow us and reach out with any questions you have on this ever-evolving real estate market.

*What constitutes a seller's, buyer's, or balanced market?

• 2 or fewer months of inventory is a seller's market
• 3-4 months of inventory is a balanced market
• 5+ months of inventory is a buyers market

If no new properties came on the market it would take less than 2 months to sell all the available homes.

What's Happening in The Durham Region

It's still a Seller's Market, albeit cooling. 

With just over 2 months of inventory, it remains a seller's market.  Inventory increased in June and sales faltered down 15.8% in Durham from the prior month while pricing remained stable.

The Bank of Canada's June interest rate hike and the lack of inventory meeting buyer needs to this point have driven some buyers to the sidelines. 

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What's the Takeaway?

With inventory increasing and fewer buyers in the market the way a home is prepared, priced, and marketed is more important than in the last quarter. Inventory may have increased but it is still very low. Sellers who are prepared to attract buyers with the right listing strategy will come out on top.

Buyers who are qualified and prepared can take advantage of the slowing sales volume and increased inventory. Connect with experts like us to determine what your options are and how best to approach this market.

Could the market cool off?

Yes, in June we have already seen significant increases in new listings while sales have declined. While pricing has remained stable increasing interest rates impact affordability for buyers and that could continue to cool the market.  

The next big announcement from the Bank of Canada is set to take place in Septmeber, 2023. Follow us to see what happens with interest rates and how that will affect the real estate market. *** July 12th  Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark rate to 5%. This puts prime rate at 7.20%.***

As always follow us and reach out with any questions you have on this ever-evolving real estate market.

What's Happening in The Durham Region

It's still a Seller's Market

We continue to see homes sell for well over the list price in multiple offers. 

Our own listings and those of many of our colleagues at Sutton Group-Heritage Realty Inc. are seeing a ton of traffic and selling in multiples.

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What's the Takeaway?

Sellers can feel confident knowing there is a growing but limited pool of listings competing for a larger pool of buyers.

Buyers should be prepared when shopping and expect to compete for the home they want. It’s important to look at what comparable homes are selling for and view the list price of any property as a marketing tool rather than the asking price.

Could the market cool off?

On June 7th the Bank of Canada announced another increase to its policy rate by .25% This is the first increase since the bank indicated it would hold rates in January. While most speculators weren’t betting on further increases now that may be changing (CBC article).

The last time the bank increased rates it had a cooling effect on the market.

As always follow us and reach out with any questions you have on this ever-evolving real estate market.

What's happening in the market in Durham Region?

It's still a Seller's Market

March is the 3rd consecutive month where detached homes, semis, and condos saw sold price increases for Durham as a whole.

Sales & New Listings are up in March and Days on the Market continue to decline in every market with the exception of Scugog.

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What's the Takeaway?

Sellers can feel confident knowing there is a growing but limited pool of listings competing for a larger pool of buyers.

Buyers can still find opportunities and while competition is heating up it's still not nearly what it was at the peak.

With interest rates holding and the market adjusting to the new normal. It will be interesting to see if more buyers enter the market and what impact that will have on the competition. More listings are hitting the market but it still doesn't seem to be keeping up with the demand.

1920x1048-Durham March 2023 by Brian Stanton

After a long snowing winter, the spring market is heating up

Last month we passed the one-year anniversary of the peak of housing prices and while the news may be preoccupied with the 17.9% year-over-year decline in GTA housing prices we’re more concerned with what buyers and sellers like you are working with today.

Has the housing market come full circle? One statistic is pointing to that conclusion.

Last month saw a typical increase in homes hitting the market from the previous month but inventory remains very low. We saw significantly fewer transactions as well in February but one statistic give us a clue that competition is heating up. Days on market are declining indicating buyers are getting more aggressive.

In fact, on the street, we’re seeing a significant increase in homes selling in multiple offers and average days on market dropping significantly something we’ll be keeping an eye on in the coming weeks.

Here are the stats for Markets Across the GTA in February 2023.

Durham February Market Watch Snapshot TRREB Data by Brian Stanton

Toronto & York Region February Market Watch Snapshot TRREB Data by Brian Stanton

Cobourg Port Hope February Market Watch Snapshot TRREB Data by Brian Stanton

THE BOTTOM LINE

FOR BUYERS: You can still make a conditional purchase and while competition is heating up in some markets for certain properties there lots of opportunities to find the home you want at good value. If you’re contemplating a buy and are on the sidelines there are a couple important first steps. Reach out and we can help you get the ball rolling.

FOR SELLERS: Now is a great time to sell your home. With more buyers entering the market and competition heating up you can benefit from the limited supply. You’ll want to consult with a realtor to determine how to make your move and how to best prepare your home so you get top dollar. Reach out to Jim and he'll help you get started 

Housing prices are down year over year going back to January 2022 and there are lots of headlines on that topic, but there’s a silver lining if you look deeper.

Yes, the days and seeing double-digit price increases in such a short period of time are well behind us. As the market adjusts, we need to look ahead rather than behind to make informed decisions regarding our real estate. 

THE GOOD NEWS

While many buyers are still waiting, slightly more will enter the market in 2023 and those who do will find homes significantly more affordable than a year ago.

If you’re thinking of selling your home you should be feeling relief as pricing in many markets across the GTA is stabilizing and many areas and housing types saw the average price increase from December to January. On the street, we’re even starting to see many homes sell in multiple offers again.

Here are the stats for Markets Across the GTA in January 2023.

1080x1080-JAN 2023 Market Stats by Brian Stanton

THE BOTTOM LINE

A more balanced market offers you the opportunity to evaluate your situation and determine what the right move is for you without the pressure of wild bidding wars or the prospect of massive interest rate hikes.

CLOSING

We can expect another headline-grabbing set of statistics for year-over-year average pricing in February but if you’re thinking of making a move in today's market what’s more important is what is happening in the market today. 

If you need help determining if you can make the move you want to make in 2023. Reach out to us, we're happy to help.