October brought a subtle shift across the Greater Toronto Area. While persistent economic uncertainty, high fixed mortgage rates, and the Bank of Canada’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike to 2.50% kept a chunk of prospective buyers cautious, the real story this fall is happening on the supply side.

New listings dropped by 11.9% year-over-year (and down 14.1% month-over-month), steadily draining active inventory. This pullback in supply prevented standing inventory from flooding the market and helped firm up average selling prices across the region compared to late summer.

October at a Glance: The Key Numbers (All TRREB Areas)

• Average Selling Price: $1,024,108 (-2.7% YoY | +1.8% MoM)

• Total Sales: 5,603 (-7.9% YoY | +11.2% MoM)

• New Listings: 14,173 (-11.9% YoY | -14.1% MoM)

• Active Listings: 25,098 (-10.0% YoY | -4.0% MoM)

• Average Time on Market: 31 Listing Days (LDOM) / 49 Property Days (PDOM)

• Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 97%

• Months of Inventory: 4.48 Months (Balanced Market)

Macro Economic & Rate Context

• Bank of Canada Move: On October 28, the Bank of Canada bumped its overnight rate up by 25 bps to 2.50%, pushing prime rates to 4.50% and lowest variable mortgage rates to around 3.70%.

• Fixed Mortgage Rates: Tracked stickier government bond yields, holding firm in the 5.49% to 6.19% range.

• Inflation & Growth: The rate bump was triggered by core inflation sitting at 3.1% in September and strong Q2 GDP growth (3.3%), signaling that policy rate cuts remain on pause for now.

• Consumer Sentiment: Trade tensions and employment uncertainty continued to induce buyer hesitation, though lower selling prices compared to 2023/2024 peak levels have helped keep monthly mortgage payments manageable.

Property Type Breakdown across TRREB

• Detached Homes: Recorded 2,693 sales (-6.2% YoY) with an average price of $1,310,627 (-3.2% YoY).

• Semi-Detached Homes: Totaled 546 sales (-8.1% YoY) with an average selling price of $1,024,907 (-0.8% YoY).

• Townhouses: Posted 508 sales (-11.0% YoY) at an average price of $905,385 (-5.0% YoY).

• Condo Apartments: Saw 1,385 sales (-10.4% YoY) with an average selling price of $621,400 (-5.8% YoY).

Inside the Regions: Toronto vs. Durham Region

City of Toronto (416)

Toronto proper demonstrated strong month-over-month price momentum across almost all property types, bolstered by a sharp 16.4% drop in new listings MoM.

• Total Sales: 2,184 (-7.1% YoY | +12.8% MoM)

• Average Price: $1,075,627

• Detached: $1,603,886 (-0.9% YoY | +2.6% MoM)

• Semi-Detached: $1,225,229 (+0.5% YoY | +1.4% MoM)

• Townhouse: $1,244,686 (+10.9% YoY | +12.7% MoM) — The standout performer in the 416 core.

• Condo Apartment: $659,214 (-5.7% YoY | +3.0% MoM)

• Days on Market: 45 Property Days

Durham Region (905)

Durham Region offered accessible pricing points for buyers, though freehold values experienced modest softening month-over-month.

• Total Sales: 589 (-17.6% YoY | +6.7% MoM)

• Average Price: $793,024

• Detached: $875,260 (-8.0% YoY | -5.5% MoM)

• Semi-Detached: $617,652 (-14.4% YoY | -8.9% MoM)

• Townhouse: $694,156 (-8.4% YoY | -6.2% MoM)

• Condo Apartment: $466,698 (-7.3% YoY | +5.9% MoM)

• Days on Market: 45 Property Days

What Does This Mean for You Heading Into Year-End?

For Buyers: Substantial Negotiating Power

• Leverage in Negotiations: With average sale-to-list price ratios holding at 97%–98% and homes averaging 45 to 49 property days on market, buyers have room to include conditions and negotiate terms.

• Price Floor Stability: Active inventory is down 10% year-over-year, meaning prices are stabilizing rather than plummeting. If you're waiting for a drastic price crash before entering the market, current inventory trends suggest prices are holding steady.

For Sellers: Strategic Pricing is Essential

• Compete on Presentation & Price: Shrinking active inventory provides support against steep price drops, but elevated days on market mean buyers are taking their time.

• Realistic Alignment: Properties priced at current fair market value are moving smoothly, whereas over-priced listings are sitting and requiring price adjustments.

Looking Ahead to Q4

As we move toward the final weeks of 2026, the GTA market is settling into a balanced state. Supply contraction is keeping prices grounded around the $1.00M–$1.02M mark, while elevated mortgage rates prevent a sudden surge in buyer frenzy. Expect steady, measured activity heading into the winter months.

Need Strategy, Not Guesswork?

Whether you’re planning your next move in Toronto, Durham Region, or across the GTA, having a localized strategy makes all the difference. Reach out today for a personalized consultation!

Get the complete view on markets in Durham, Markham/Stouffville and Port Hope/Cobourg.

If you’ve been watching the Toronto and Durham real estate markets, you might be wondering why the news feels full of mixed signals. Headline numbers talk about sales dipping, while on the ground, buyers and sellers are navigating a market shaped by changing mortgage dynamics, seasonal inventory surges, and economic holding patterns.

Let's break down what actually happened across the Greater Toronto Area, Toronto, and Durham Region in September 2026, and what it means for your next move.

The Big Picture across the GTA

Across the entire Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) area, September showed a market where buyers remained cautious amidst borrowing cost uncertainty, while sellers adjusted to early autumn expectations:

• Total Sales: 5,040 (-9.0% YoY)

• Average Selling Price: $1,006,409 (-5.1% YoY)

• New Listings: 16,500 (-14.4% YoY)

• Active Listings: 26,131 (-9.3% YoY)

• Days on Market (Avg. LDOM): 34 days

• Property Days on Market (Avg. PDOM): 51 days

• Sales-to-List Price Ratio: 98%

While overall sales slowed compared to last September, supply also contracted, keeping inventory from over-accumulating and keeping negotiation room grounded around 98% of list price.

City of Toronto Market Breakdown

Toronto saw a classic post-Labour Day influx of new listings alongside a notable uptick in month-over-month sales activity.

Key Toronto Insights

• Freehold Demand Bounced Back Month-over-Month: Semi-detached homes ($1,207,884) and townhouses ($1,104,629) posted strong month-over-month price growth of +8.8% and +7.7% respectively, demonstrating sustained buyer demand for mid-tier freehold options.

• Fall Inventory Arrived: New listings surged +55.3% from August to 6,521 homes, offering buyers significantly more choice than in the summer months.

• Condos Remain Soft: Condo average prices dipped slightly month-over-month (-1.7%) to $640,248 as higher inventory levels in the condo sector gave buyers the upper hand during negotiations.

Durham Region Market Breakdown

Durham Region continued to offer an appealing blend of relative affordability and community appeal, though seasonal shifts were clearly evident.

Key Durham Insights

• Detached & Townhouse Resilience: Single-family detached homes ($926,218) and townhouses ($739,889) both saw modest price increases month-over-month (+1.1% and +1.3%), reflecting steady family-home demand across Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa, and Pickering.

• Slower Pace of Sales: Total sales dropped -8.3% month-over-month to 552 units, while Days on Market ticked up to 48 days, giving buyers extra room to inspect properties and finalize financing without feeling rushed.

• Condo Opportunity: Condo apartment prices in Durham dropped to $440,829 (-7.4% MoM), creating an accessible entry point for first-time buyers looking to get onto the property ladder.

Behind the Numbers: Interest Rates & Mortgage Dynamics

Heading into October, borrowing dynamics played a major role in buyer behavior:

1. The Fixed vs. Variable Gap: While the Bank of Canada held its overnight policy rate steady at 2.25% in its early September announcement, 5-year fixed mortgage rates edged upward due to rising bond yields. Variable rate options remained lower, creating a wider-than-usual rate spread and forcing buyers to choose between fixed stability or lower initial variable payments.

2. Pent-Up Demand in a Holding Pattern: Many prospective buyers are sitting on pre-approvals, waiting for inflation trends and rate expectations to settle before locking into longer-term financing.

3. Strategic Pricing Matters: With new listings up significantly from August (+55.3% in Toronto, +28.9% in Durham), sellers who price accurately based on recent local comps are securing firm sales, while over-priced listings are sitting past the 40-to-50-day mark.

What This Means for You

• For Buyers: Fall inventory is here. With properties taking an average of 45 to 48 days to sell and sale-to-list price ratios holding near 98%, you have time to perform due diligence, negotiate terms, and explore mortgage structure options without pressure.

• For Sellers: Buyers are active but price-sensitive. Proper presentation, aggressive market positioning, and realistic pricing strategies are key to standing out among the expanding fall competition.

Have questions about what these numbers mean for your neighbourhood or specific street? Contact our team today for a tailored evaluation of your home!