December Market Watch: Seasonal Slowdown Sets the Stage for 2025 Opportunities

As expected, December brought a seasonal cooldown to the GTA housing market. With fewer listings, softened sales, and mixed price trends, both buyers and sellers can find unique opportunities in this quieter time of year. Here’s what the latest data reveals and what it could mean for you.

Market Dynamics

Sales Momentum: December 2024 saw a predictable dip in sales activity, declining 1.8% year-over-year and a significant 43% month-over-month, following November's remarkable 40% year-over-year surge. The seasonal slowdown reflects the typical December pattern as the market winds down for the holidays.

Listing Dynamics: New listings dropped sharply, down nearly 60% from November, but remained 20% higher than December 2023 levels. Active listings, meanwhile, were up 48.5% year-over-year, indicating an inventory buildup compared to the prior December but a noticeable contraction compared to the fall months.

Price Trends: The average sale price for December landed at $1,067,186, down 1.6% year-over-year and 3.5% month-over-month. Looking at the bigger picture, the average sale price for 2024 across all home types came in at $1,117,600—a modest 0.8% dip compared to 2023’s $1,126,263.

Market Status: Listings spent an average of 36 days on the market in December, while total property days on market, including relisted homes, averaged 56 days. These figures underscore the slower pace of activity that defines this time of year.

What's happening locally? Toronto Market Insights

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Impact of Interest Rates

Impact of Mortgage Rates

The Bank of Canada delivered another rate cut on December 11, reducing the benchmark rate by 0.50%. This move offers relief to variable-rate mortgage holders and those seeking new variable-rate options. However, fixed mortgage rates edged higher earlier in the month, following a lagging response to increased bond yields from the fall. Looking ahead, industry experts anticipate fixed rates will decrease in 2025 as lenders compete for the attention of the 1.2 million Canadians facing mortgage renewals next year.

The next Bank of Canada announcement is on January 24th.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

December can present hidden gems for savvy buyers. With fewer active shoppers in the market, competition is reduced, providing more room for negotiation. If you’re able to find a home that fits your needs, you might secure a great deal ahead of the busier spring market.

For Sellers:

A quieter December market can actually work in your favor, with fewer competing listings vying for buyer attention. If your home is well-prepared and strategically marketed, it has the potential to stand out and attract serious buyers. Alternatively, December is an excellent time to prepare for a spring listing, ensuring your home is in prime condition to capitalize on early 2025 demand.

In Conclusion 

The December market slowdown is a natural conclusion to the year, but it sets the stage for exciting opportunities in 2025. With interest rates shifting, inventory tightening, and buyer activity expected to pick up, now is the time to plan your next move strategically.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert advice and tailored support to navigate this evolving market. Let’s make 2025 your most successful year yet.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

December Market Watch: Seasonal Slowdown Sets the Stage for 2025 Opportunities

As expected, December brought a seasonal cooldown to the GTA housing market. With fewer listings, softened sales, and mixed price trends, both buyers and sellers can find unique opportunities in this quieter time of year. Here’s what the latest data reveals and what it could mean for you.

Market Dynamics

Sales Momentum: December 2024 saw a predictable dip in sales activity, declining 1.8% year-over-year and a significant 43% month-over-month, following November's remarkable 40% year-over-year surge. The seasonal slowdown reflects the typical December pattern as the market winds down for the holidays.

Listing Dynamics: New listings dropped sharply, down nearly 60% from November, but remained 20% higher than December 2023 levels. Active listings, meanwhile, were up 48.5% year-over-year, indicating an inventory buildup compared to the prior December but a noticeable contraction compared to the fall months.

Price Trends: The average sale price for December landed at $1,067,186, down 1.6% year-over-year and 3.5% month-over-month. Looking at the bigger picture, the average sale price for 2024 across all home types came in at $1,117,600—a modest 0.8% dip compared to 2023’s $1,126,263.

Market Status: Listings spent an average of 36 days on the market in December, while total property days on market, including relisted homes, averaged 56 days. These figures underscore the slower pace of activity that defines this time of year.

What's happening locally? Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

Impact of Interest Rates

Impact of Mortgage Rates

The Bank of Canada delivered another rate cut on December 11, reducing the benchmark rate by 0.50%. This move offers relief to variable-rate mortgage holders and those seeking new variable-rate options. However, fixed mortgage rates edged higher earlier in the month, following a lagging response to increased bond yields from the fall. Looking ahead, industry experts anticipate fixed rates will decrease in 2025 as lenders compete for the attention of the 1.2 million Canadians facing mortgage renewals next year.

The next Bank of Canada announcement is on January 24th.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

December can present hidden gems for savvy buyers. With fewer active shoppers in the market, competition is reduced, providing more room for negotiation. If you’re able to find a home that fits your needs, you might secure a great deal ahead of the busier spring market.

For Sellers:

A quieter December market can actually work in your favor, with fewer competing listings vying for buyer attention. If your home is well-prepared and strategically marketed, it has the potential to stand out and attract serious buyers. Alternatively, December is an excellent time to prepare for a spring listing, ensuring your home is in prime condition to capitalize on early 2025 demand.

In Conclusion 

The December market slowdown is a natural conclusion to the year, but it sets the stage for exciting opportunities in 2025. With interest rates shifting, inventory tightening, and buyer activity expected to pick up, now is the time to plan your next move strategically.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert advice and tailored support to navigate this evolving market. Let’s make 2025 your most successful year yet.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

November Market Watch: Is the GTA Housing Recovery Gaining Momentum?

With sales up 40.1% year-over-year and borrowing costs trending lower, the GTA housing market is making headlines. But what’s really happening behind the numbers? While buyers are reaping the benefits of choice and negotiating power, sellers are navigating a balanced market with cautious optimism for 2025. Let’s break down the latest stats and what they mean for you.

Market Dynamics

Sales Momentum: November 2024 saw 5,875 home sales, marking a 40.1% increase year-over-year. However, sales dipped 11.76% month-over-month, reflecting the typical seasonal slowdown as the holiday season approaches.

Listing Dynamics: New listings increased by 6.6% compared to November 2023 but declined significantly by 24.4% from October. Meanwhile, active listings rose 30.2% year-over-year but decreased by 10.9% month-over-month, signaling that the market is tightening as inventory gets absorbed.

Price Trends: The average selling price climbed 2.6% year-over-year to $1,106,050, but dropped 2.6% from October. Single-family homes are seeing stronger price growth, while condos remain a buyer’s market with lower average prices and ample options.

Market Status: With 31 days on the market on average, properties are moving at a steady but not rushed pace. The GTA remains a balanced market, where neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage—a trend expected to persist into 2025

What's happening locally? Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

Impact of Interest Rates

Impact of Mortgage Rates

The Bank of Canada’s recent rate cuts continue to shape the market. Borrowing costs are trending lower, helping more buyers enter the market or upgrade to larger homes. With another rate cut anticipated in December, purchasing power is expected to strengthen further, fueling competition into the new year.

Condo buyers, in particular, are benefitting from the current environment, with strong negotiating positions and ample inventory providing opportunities to secure favorable deals. 

The next Bank of Canada announcement is on December 11th.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

The window of opportunity is still open, but the market is tightening, especially in the detached home segment. Buyers who act now can take advantage of choice and negotiating power, particularly in the condo market, before competition intensifies in 2025.

For Sellers:

While the market is balanced, sellers cannot take for granted that their property will sell without effort. Strategic pricing and preparation are key to standing out as buyers continue to weigh their options carefully.

In Conclusion 

The GTA housing market is showing signs of recovery, with buyers steadily returning and sellers navigating a balanced market. With interest rates declining and inventory tightening, the stage is set for an accelerating market recovery in 2025. Whether you're buying or selling, planning strategically now can set you up for success in the coming months.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized support to navigate this evolving market and make the most of current opportunities.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

Have the Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate Cuts been enough to stimulate the Fall Market?

As we move into the final quarter of 2024, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market remains dynamic, with signs of both stability and uncertainty. While home sales have shown a modest increase year-over-year and new listings are flooding the market, the anticipated impact of recent interest rate cuts has yet to fully materialize. Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and a slightly more favorable mortgage landscape, but sellers face challenges in pricing homes effectively amidst longer days on market. In this recap, we'll explore key market trends, the evolving mortgage environment, and what these changes mean for buyers and sellers as we approach the end of 2024.

Market Summary

Sales Momentum: October’s sales increased by a remarkable 44.4% from 2023 and 33% from the previous month. This impressive growth points to heightened buyer engagement, likely driven by recent interest rate cuts and increasing consumer confidence in a more balanced market.

• Listing Dynamics: New listings rose modestly by 4.3% year-over-year but fell 15.3% from September, hinting that sellers may be holding back due to the approaching holiday season or expectations of better pricing ahead.

• Active Listings: Although active listings were up by 25.3% year-over-year, they decreased by 4.4% from the previous month, showing signs that excess inventory is gradually being absorbed by the market.

• Price Trends: Average home prices showed a 1.1% increase from last year and a 2.5% rise from September, indicating gradual price stability with slight upward pressure as competition picks up.

• Market Status: With 3.68 months of inventory available, the GTA remains in a balanced market, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 43%. This offers both buyers and sellers unique opportunities as the market continues to stabilize.

• Time to Sell: Listings spent an average of 27 days on the market, with an overall average selling time of 43 days when you take into account listings that terminated and relisted. This reflects the need for competitive pricing and strategic positioning as buyers weigh their options in a still-saturated market.

What's happening locally? Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

Impact of Interest Rates

Mortgage Rate Dynamics and Their Impact

On October 23, 2024, the Bank of Canada made a bold move by lowering its policy rate by 0.50% to 3.75%, the largest cut since the cycle began in June. While many anticipated that this would stimulate home sales, October's market activity hints that the mere expectation of the cut may have already influenced buyers to act.

As we approach the Bank’s December 11 announcement, another potential rate cut could further drive purchasing activity, particularly for those with increased purchasing power in a more favorable borrowing environment.

Effect on Variable-Rate Mortgages: For adjustable-rate mortgage holders, this recent rate cut could equate to approximately $30 less in monthly payments per $100,000 of mortgage debt, based on a 25-year amortization. For fixed-payment variable-rate mortgage holders, more of each payment will go toward building equity.

Impact on Fixed Rates: In contrast, fixed-rate mortgage holders may see modest rate hikes, as lenders have started adjusting rates slightly. These incremental adjustments stem partly from recent U.S. elections and market responses.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

The surge in sales activity shows competition is heating up, but with a substantial inventory still on the market, buyers continue to have leverage for negotiating and submitting conditional offers. However, this window of opportunity won’t remain open indefinitely, as sidelined buyers are likely to re-enter as rate cuts continue.

For Sellers

For those planning to sell, October’s sales momentum is an encouraging signal. As inventory often slows around the holiday season, there’s potential for fewer listings and increased demand from motivated buyers. If inventory continues to shrink, sellers can anticipate stronger competition and possibly favorable pricing dynamics.

In Conclusion 

With active listings still substantial but gradually reducing the market's balance will depend on whether sales growth continues into the winter months. The next few months will reveal if buyers will jump in now or await further rate cuts, which will likely intensify competition as we move toward spring.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized support to navigate this evolving market and make the most of current opportunities.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)