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January Market Update

In January 2024, the average selling price of homes across the GTA experienced a one percent year-over-year decline, settling at $1,026,703 according to The MLS® Home Price Index Composite.

Home sales increased compared to the same month in 2023. This rise was partly due to certain homebuyers taking advantage of lower interest rates linked to fixed-rate mortgages.

New property listings also saw a year-over-year increase, the growth rate was lower than that of home sales resulting in tighter market conditions, compared to the previous year, suggesting the possibility of renewed price growth as we transition into the spring market.

The increased demand, coupled with a more modest increase in available homes, may contribute to a potential uptick in housing prices.

Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town

January 2024 Market Stats Durham


January 2024 Market Stats Toronto



Reflecting on last month's post


Last month we proposed the ways our housing market could go in 2024 largely hinging on the potential for mortgage rates to come down based on a reduction in the Bank of Canada's (BoC) policy and that of the fixed-rate bond market.


Well if January is any indication a return to a Seller's Market is imminent. With the BoC pausing rates for the 4th consecutive decision in January and fixed rates looking more favorable buyers have gotten a head start on the Spring Market.


What we are seeing on the ground

In a market characterized by both increased sales and a surge in property listings, home buyers and sellers find themselves navigating a dynamic and competitive landscape.

For Buyers

The spike in listings provides buyers with a broader array of options, but the heightened demand, particularly in the lower price range, has resulted in more properties receiving multiple offers. Despite the competitive atmosphere, there remains ample opportunity for savvy buyers to find a suitable property and engage in negotiations.

For Sellers

Sellers, on the other hand, are benefiting from the renewed demand, potentially receiving more attractive offers. Overall, the market's equilibrium between increased sales and listings creates an environment where both buyers and sellers must adapt to changing dynamics while recognizing opportunities for successful transactions.


MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (add stats for Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

January 2024 Market Stats Markham Stouffeville


January 2024 Market Stats Port Hope and Cobourg
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While the stats show GTA home prices have increased in the month of October 2023 compared to the same time last year, prices remained relatively flat from the previous month. The big change we are seeing is the inventory levels are way up and the sales volume is down.

TRREB October Market Watch Infor Graphic

Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.



What it means for Buyers & Sellers

This presents an opportunity for buyers. You can likely avoid competing on a property and negotiate on price and terms, which hasn't always been an option for successful buyers in recent years. If you own your current home and are looking to move, it may be wise to sell first. This ensures you don't overextend on your purchase and can upgrade/downsize with confidence.

Sellers Need to Match the Market

Homes are taking longer to sell and we are seeing a lot of terminated listings and price adjustments. The properties that are selling are the ones priced correctly to today's market conditions. If you want to get your property sold then the correct pricing and presentation are extremely important.

Impact on New Home & Pre-Construction Sales

Another segment of the market that is feeling the impact of high-interest rates is new home and pre-construction sales. We are noticing that there is a growing number of assignment sales being offered at a discount from the original purchase price. If you are considering purchasing an assignment it is imperative that you have representation and have the contract reviewed thoroughly. 

What's Next

What's next for the real estate market in the GTA, well nobody knows for sure. With so many mortgages set to renew in the next few years, we will certainly be watching and waiting to see what happens with interest rates moving forward.


MORE MARKET INSIGHTS

October 2023 Market Stats Markham Stouffville


October 2023 Market Stats Northumberland

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Hello, dear readers! As your trusted real estate expert, we're back with the latest scoop on the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market for September 2023. Let's get right into it:

Staying Cool:

The GTA real estate market maintained its cool demeanor in September, following the trends set during the summer months. The impact of interest rates continued to affect buyers.

TRREB September 2023 Stats


Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

September 2023 Market Stats Durham
September 2023 Market Stats Toronto

Home Sales:

In September, 4,642 homes were sold in the GTA, marking a 12.1% drop from August and a 7.1% decline from the previous year. Detached homes and condo apartments continued to be the top choices for buyers. The dip in sales was more noticeable for ground-oriented homes, particularly semi-detached houses and townhouses.

Home Prices:

The average selling price for homes in the GTA was around $1,129,428. This is a 3% increase compared to the previous year and a 3.4% uptick from August. However, it's important to note that this doesn't necessarily indicate a reversal of the downward trend seen over the summer, given the rising inventory and declining sales.

Inventory Levels: 

The GTA's current month of inventory stands at 3.94 months, signaling a balanced market. New listings increased by 44% compared to the previous year and by 32% from August. Interestingly, this contrasts with the pricing trends. More homes are available, but fewer are selling, despite slightly higher prices month-over-month. In the Durham Region, the market remains more competitive, with only 2.6 months of inventory.

Days on Market:

Homes are spending an average of 20 days on the market. In Durham Region, it took approximately 25 days for homes to sell, and in Toronto, that number was around 30 days. It's worth mentioning that we're noticing many listings terminating and relisting, which can extend these timeframes.

Interest Rates and Their Impact:

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem noted, "The fight against inflation is not over." Despite taking a "wait and see" approach in September, the impact of the nine consecutive interest rate hikes since April 2022 continues to affect buyer purchasing power. Moreover, the Bank of Canada hasn't ruled out another interest rate hike in October, with the next announcement scheduled for Oct. 25th.

Pricing Strategies:

Pricing plays a significant role in this market, especially in the Durham Region. An overpriced home can struggle to gain interest, while an underpriced one may not attract the right offer. As demand eases due to rising borrowing costs, many sellers are finding it challenging to establish the right pricing strategy. Some homes miss offer dates, terminate listings, and relist, sometimes more than once before they sell. Accurate pricing backed by data is crucial for an efficient sale.

External Factors:

The market is still influenced by the same external factors, primarily interest rates and their impact on buying power, coupled with the heightened demand driven by population growth in the GTA.

Local Market Variations:

Every market experienced significant inventory increases, but some key markets saw substantial price swings. For example, Ajax witnessed a 7.3% increase in the average price of semis, while Clarington saw a 7.5% decrease in detached prices and an 8% increase in condo pricing. These shifts are often due to fewer sales and specific property sales impacting the average price month-over-month.

What's Next:

In the short term, what happens next largely depends on the Bank of Canada's decision in its Oct. 25 announcement. If inventory continues to rise, we can expect the market to remain cool in the latter half of 2023. While mortgage affordability remains a challenge for buyers, they may have more negotiating power. Financing and inspection conditions are becoming more common in offers, and sellers will continue to adapt to a more competitive market. Preparing your home effectively, including setting a well-thought-out list price, will be crucial for attracting the right buyers.


The GTA real estate market keeps evolving, and we'll keep you updated. If you have any questions or need assistance with your real estate endeavors, don't hesitate to reach out. We're here to guide you through the ever-changing world of real estate!


MORE MARKET INSIGHTS

September 2023 Market Stats Markham Stouffville
September 2023 Market Stats Northumberland
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As your trusted real estate expert, I'm here to give you a straightforward rundown of what's been happening in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market this past August. Let's dive right in:

Cooling Off, but Steady:

The GTA real estate market continued to cool off in August. A few factors played a role, such as interest rate increases by the Bank of Canada, economic uncertainty, and a shortage of available homes. So, it's been a bit more relaxed for both buyers and sellers lately.

TRREB August 2023 Stats

Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

August 2023 Market Stats Durhamby Brian Stanton


August 2023 Market Stats Torontoby Brian Stanton


*See insights for Markham/Stouffville & Northumberland at the bottom.

Home Sales:

In August, a total of 5,294 homes were sold across the GTA. This is a bit up from July but down 5.2% compared to last year. The most popular choices among buyers were detached homes and condo apartments.


Home Prices:

The average selling price for a home in the GTA was around $1,082,496. It's up slightly from last year but down 3.2% from July. So, prices have been holding fairly steady, with some fluctuations in condos and semis in the Durham Region.


Inventory Levels:

Right now, we have about 2.2 months of inventory. Technically, this means it's still a seller's market (anything below 3 months). But, due to the impact of interest rates, it's more balanced. We did see more listings this year, but overall, we still don't have enough homes for sale.


Days on Market:

Homes are selling faster than they did last year, but it's taking a bit longer than it did in July. On average, homes in Durham Region took 22 days to sell, and in Toronto, it was around 29 days.


Mortgage Rates and Affordability:

Interest rates have gone up ten times since April 2022. That's affecting how much people can afford to borrow. So, affordability is on the minds of many buyers. High demand and low supply are also keeping prices from dropping considerably.


Investor Trends:

We're noticing that condo investors in Toronto are starting to sell their units because of those rising interest rates. This might make condos a better option for homebuyers.


External Factors:

Interest rates are still a big deal. They affect how much people can spend on a home and how motivated sellers are. Plus, we're seeing a lot of new folks moving to the GTA, which is keeping things competitive despite challenges for buyers.


Local Market Variations:

Certain areas, like Whitby, saw a 25.2% increase in condo prices. But don’t be fooled. This was likely because there were fewer sales, and some specific properties affected the average price. We call those sales outliers.


What's Next:

As we head into September and the Fall Market, we usually see more listings and more buyers. The Bank of Canada decided to keep interest rates at 5% for now, so that gives buyers some short-term certainty. We predict a more balanced market in the near future, with financing costs being a bit high for aggressive bidding wars, but still, strong demand and low inventory will keep prices competitive.


What's the Takeaway

In a nutshell, the GTA real estate market is still active, but it's finding a more balanced groove. If you're buying or selling, make sure to stay updated with these trends, and feel free to reach out if you have any questions or need assistance. We're here to help you navigate the ever-changing real estate landscape!


MORE MARKET INSIGHTS

August 2023 Market Stats Markham Stouffvilleby Brian Stanton
August 2023 Market Stats Northumberlandby Brian Stanton


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The market was more balanced in July

The market was more balanced in the Durham Region, yet still considered a seller's market* with only 2 months of inventory despite a decline in sales and average price across the region in July.

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

 
July 2023 Market Stats
 

What's the Takeaway?

The market has slowed down slightly in July but historically the dog days of summer are when demand decreases due to buyers putting off their searches. However, buyers could also be feeling the results of June’s interest rate announcement when the Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 0.25%.

Sellers need to stay abreast of market conditions especially as we head into September when the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement will take place.

Buyers can take advantage of summer months with a little less competition and perhaps feel a little less rushed with average days on the market increasing.

What should we expect for the Fall Market?

Is this month’s sales a result of seasonality or the Bank of Canada’s interest rate increase in June? That is the question. It’s likely a little of both. If September brings another rate increase we can expect that to further impact purchasing power and in turn sales and pricing in the Durham Region.

If not the Fall Market may bring more buyers back into the market and increase competition for a limited supply of homes.

Read How will Canada’s Economy Impact the Fall Market

As always follow us and reach out with any questions you have on this ever-evolving real estate market.


*What constitutes a seller's, buyer's, or balanced market?

  • 2 or fewer months of inventory is a seller's market
  • 3-4 months of inventory is a balanced market
  • 5+ months of inventory is a buyers market


If no new properties came on the market it would take less than 2 months to sell all the available homes.

Read

What's Happening in The Durham Region

It's still a Seller's Market, albeit cooling. 

With just over 2 months of inventory, it remains a seller's market.  Inventory increased in June and sales faltered down 15.8% in Durham from the prior month while pricing remained stable.

The Bank of Canada's June interest rate hike and the lack of inventory meeting buyer needs to this point have driven some buyers to the sidelines. 

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

1920x965-June 2023 Market Statsby Brian Stanton
 

What's the Takeaway?

With inventory increasing and fewer buyers in the market the way a home is prepared, priced, and marketed is more important than in the last quarter. Inventory may have increased but it is still very low. Sellers who are prepared to attract buyers with the right listing strategy will come out on top.

Buyers who are qualified and prepared can take advantage of the slowing sales volume and increased inventory. Connect with experts like us to determine what your options are and how best to approach this market.

Could the market cool off?

Yes, in June we have already seen significant increases in new listings while sales have declined. While pricing has remained stable increasing interest rates impact affordability for buyers and that could continue to cool the market.  

The next big announcement from the Bank of Canada is set to take place in Septmeber, 2023. Follow us to see what happens with interest rates and how that will affect the real estate market. *** July 12th  Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark rate to 5%. This puts prime rate at 7.20%.***

As always follow us and reach out with any questions you have on this ever-evolving real estate market.

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What's Happening in The Durham Region

It's still a Seller's Market

We continue to see homes sell for well over the list price in multiple offers. 

Our own listings and those of many of our colleagues at Sutton Group-Heritage Realty Inc. are seeing a ton of traffic and selling in multiples.

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

1920x965-May 2023 Market Statsby Brian Stanton

What's the Takeaway?

Sellers can feel confident knowing there is a growing but limited pool of listings competing for a larger pool of buyers.

Buyers should be prepared when shopping and expect to compete for the home they want. It’s important to look at what comparable homes are selling for and view the list price of any property as a marketing tool rather than the asking price.

Could the market cool off?

On June 7th the Bank of Canada announced another increase to its policy rate by .25% This is the first increase since the bank indicated it would hold rates in January. While most speculators weren’t betting on further increases now that may be changing (CBC article).

The last time the bank increased rates it had a cooling effect on the market.

As always follow us and reach out with any questions you have on this ever-evolving real estate market.

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