January Market Update

In January 2024, the average selling price of homes across the GTA experienced a one percent year-over-year decline, settling at $1,026,703 according to The MLS® Home Price Index Composite.

Home sales increased compared to the same month in 2023. This rise was partly due to certain homebuyers taking advantage of lower interest rates linked to fixed-rate mortgages.

New property listings also saw a year-over-year increase, the growth rate was lower than that of home sales resulting in tighter market conditions, compared to the previous year, suggesting the possibility of renewed price growth as we transition into the spring market.

The increased demand, coupled with a more modest increase in available homes, may contribute to a potential uptick in housing prices.

Durham & Toronto Market Insights

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January 2024 Market Stats Durham

Reflecting on last month's post

Last month we proposed the ways our housing market could go in 2024 largely hinging on the potential for mortgage rates to come down based on a reduction in the Bank of Canada's (BoC) policy and that of the fixed-rate bond market.

Well if January is any indication a return to a Seller's Market is imminent. With the BoC pausing rates for the 4th consecutive decision in January and fixed rates looking more favorable buyers have gotten a head start on the Spring Market.

What we are seeing on the ground

In a market characterized by both increased sales and a surge in property listings, home buyers and sellers find themselves navigating a dynamic and competitive landscape.

For Buyers

The spike in listings provides buyers with a broader array of options, but the heightened demand, particularly in the lower price range, has resulted in more properties receiving multiple offers. Despite the competitive atmosphere, there remains ample opportunity for savvy buyers to find a suitable property and engage in negotiations.

For Sellers

Sellers, on the other hand, are benefiting from the renewed demand, potentially receiving more attractive offers. Overall, the market's equilibrium between increased sales and listings creates an environment where both buyers and sellers must adapt to changing dynamics while recognizing opportunities for successful transactions.

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (add stats for Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

January 2024 Market Stats Markham Stouffeville

December Market Update

The average home price was $1,084,692 in December up 3.2% year-over-year across the GTA in December and flat month-over-month.

Active listings were up compared to 2022 yet down 38.12% vs. November this year. However, a reduction in listings in December is normal through the holiday season. 

Days on Market increased as well both year-over-year and month-over-month.

With 3 months of inventory, the GTA Housing Market was balanced in December 2023.

Durham & Toronto Market Insights

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December 2023 Market Stats Durham

December 2023 Market Stats Toronto

What we are seeing on the ground. 

For Buyers

When a market is more balanced and not favouring one side or the other negotiations become more important for buyers and sellers. We continue to see offers accepted with conditions included. It’s become the norm for offers to include Home Inspection and Financing clauses. Beyond understanding the market value for homes and what to offer, Buyers need to go in with the right clauses to give them peace of mind. Sellers need to evaluate offers on more than just price and ensure their agent is qualifying buyers as best as possible when considering an offer.

For Sellers

Many sellers terminated their listings in December as the buyer pool shrunk with the holiday season and our expectation is many will relist in the new year. We have noticed several listings have gone through price changes or were terminated and relisted with new pricing in the last quarter of 2023. For sellers, this is where it is key to know the value of your home, how much you need to get to make the move you want, and what pricing strategy will be most effective in your local market.

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (add stats for Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

Staying Cool:

The GTA real estate market maintained its cool demeanor in September, following the trends set during the summer months. The impact of interest rates continued to affect buyers.

Durham & Toronto Market Insights

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Home Sales:

In September, 4,642 homes were sold in the GTA, marking a 12.1% drop from August and a 7.1% decline from the previous year. Detached homes and condo apartments continued to be the top choices for buyers. The dip in sales was more noticeable for ground-oriented homes, particularly semi-detached houses and townhouses.

Home Prices:

The average selling price for homes in the GTA was around $1,129,428. This is a 3% increase compared to the previous year and a 3.4% uptick from August. However, it's important to note that this doesn't necessarily indicate a reversal of the downward trend seen over the summer, given the rising inventory and declining sales.

Inventory Levels: 

The GTA's current month of inventory stands at 3.94 months, signaling a balanced market. New listings increased by 44% compared to the previous year and by 32% from August. Interestingly, this contrasts with the pricing trends. More homes are available, but fewer are selling, despite slightly higher prices month-over-month. In the Durham Region, the market remains more competitive, with only 2.6 months of inventory.

Days on Market:

Homes are spending an average of 20 days on the market. In Durham Region, it took approximately 25 days for homes to sell, and in Toronto, that number was around 30 days. It's worth mentioning that we're noticing many listings terminating and relisting, which can extend these timeframes.

Interest Rates and Their Impact:

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem noted, "The fight against inflation is not over." Despite taking a "wait and see" approach in September, the impact of the nine consecutive interest rate hikes since April 2022 continues to affect buyer purchasing power. Moreover, the Bank of Canada hasn't ruled out another interest rate hike in October, with the next announcement scheduled for Oct. 25th.

Pricing Strategies:

Pricing plays a significant role in this market, especially in the Durham Region. An overpriced home can struggle to gain interest, while an underpriced one may not attract the right offer. As demand eases due to rising borrowing costs, many sellers are finding it challenging to establish the right pricing strategy. Some homes miss offer dates, terminate listings, and relist, sometimes more than once before they sell. Accurate pricing backed by data is crucial for an efficient sale.

External Factors:

The market is still influenced by the same external factors, primarily interest rates and their impact on buying power, coupled with the heightened demand driven by population growth in the GTA.

Local Market Variations:

Every market experienced significant inventory increases, but some key markets saw substantial price swings. For example, Ajax witnessed a 7.3% increase in the average price of semis, while Clarington saw a 7.5% decrease in detached prices and an 8% increase in condo pricing. These shifts are often due to fewer sales and specific property sales impacting the average price month-over-month.

What's Next:

In the short term, what happens next largely depends on the Bank of Canada's decision in its Oct. 25 announcement. If inventory continues to rise, we can expect the market to remain cool in the latter half of 2023. While mortgage affordability remains a challenge for buyers, they may have more negotiating power. Financing and inspection conditions are becoming more common in offers, and sellers will continue to adapt to a more competitive market. Preparing your home effectively, including setting a well-thought-out list price, will be crucial for attracting the right buyers.

The GTA real estate market keeps evolving, and we'll keep you updated. If you have any questions or need assistance with your real estate endeavors, don't hesitate to reach out. We're here to guide you through the ever-changing world of real estate!

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS

As your trusted real estate expert, I'm here to give you a straightforward rundown of what's been happening in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market this past August. Let's dive right in:

Cooling Off, but Steady:

The GTA real estate market continued to cool off in August. A few factors played a role, such as interest rate increases by the Bank of Canada, economic uncertainty, and a shortage of available homes. So, it's been a bit more relaxed for both buyers and sellers lately.

Durham & Toronto Market Insights

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*See insights for Markham/Stouffville & Northumberland at the bottom.

Home Sales:

In August, a total of 5,294 homes were sold across the GTA. This is a bit up from July but down 5.2% compared to last year. The most popular choices among buyers were detached homes and condo apartments.

Home Prices:

The average selling price for a home in the GTA was around $1,082,496. It's up slightly from last year but down 3.2% from July. So, prices have been holding fairly steady, with some fluctuations in condos and semis in the Durham Region.

Inventory Levels:

Right now, we have about 2.2 months of inventory. Technically, this means it's still a seller's market (anything below 3 months). But, due to the impact of interest rates, it's more balanced. We did see more listings this year, but overall, we still don't have enough homes for sale.

Days on Market:

Homes are selling faster than they did last year, but it's taking a bit longer than it did in July. On average, homes in Durham Region took 22 days to sell, and in Toronto, it was around 29 days.

Mortgage Rates and Affordability:

Interest rates have gone up ten times since April 2022. That's affecting how much people can afford to borrow. So, affordability is on the minds of many buyers. High demand and low supply are also keeping prices from dropping considerably.

Investor Trends:

We're noticing that condo investors in Toronto are starting to sell their units because of those rising interest rates. This might make condos a better option for homebuyers.

External Factors:

Interest rates are still a big deal. They affect how much people can spend on a home and how motivated sellers are. Plus, we're seeing a lot of new folks moving to the GTA, which is keeping things competitive despite challenges for buyers.

Local Market Variations:

Certain areas, like Whitby, saw a 25.2% increase in condo prices. But don’t be fooled. This was likely because there were fewer sales, and some specific properties affected the average price. We call those sales outliers.

What's Next:

As we head into September and the Fall Market, we usually see more listings and more buyers. The Bank of Canada decided to keep interest rates at 5% for now, so that gives buyers some short-term certainty. We predict a more balanced market in the near future, with financing costs being a bit high for aggressive bidding wars, but still, strong demand and low inventory will keep prices competitive.

What's the Takeaway

In a nutshell, the GTA real estate market is still active, but it's finding a more balanced groove. If you're buying or selling, make sure to stay updated with these trends, and feel free to reach out if you have any questions or need assistance. We're here to help you navigate the ever-changing real estate landscape!

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS

The market was more balanced in July

The market was more balanced in the Durham Region, yet still considered a seller's market* with only 2 months of inventory despite a decline in sales and average price across the region in July.

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

What's the Takeaway?

The market has slowed down slightly in July but historically the dog days of summer are when demand decreases due to buyers putting off their searches. However, buyers could also be feeling the results of June’s interest rate announcement when the Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 0.25%.

Sellers need to stay abreast of market conditions especially as we head into September when the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement will take place.

Buyers can take advantage of summer months with a little less competition and perhaps feel a little less rushed with average days on the market increasing.

What should we expect for the Fall Market?

Is this month’s sales a result of seasonality or the Bank of Canada’s interest rate increase in June? That is the question. It’s likely a little of both. If September brings another rate increase we can expect that to further impact purchasing power and in turn sales and pricing in the Durham Region.

If not the Fall Market may bring more buyers back into the market and increase competition for a limited supply of homes.

Read How will Canada’s Economy Impact the Fall Market

As always follow us and reach out with any questions you have on this ever-evolving real estate market.

*What constitutes a seller's, buyer's, or balanced market?

• 2 or fewer months of inventory is a seller's market
• 3-4 months of inventory is a balanced market
• 5+ months of inventory is a buyers market

If no new properties came on the market it would take less than 2 months to sell all the available homes.

What's happening in the market in Durham Region?

It's still a Seller's Market

March is the 3rd consecutive month where detached homes, semis, and condos saw sold price increases for Durham as a whole.

Sales & New Listings are up in March and Days on the Market continue to decline in every market with the exception of Scugog.

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

What's the Takeaway?

Sellers can feel confident knowing there is a growing but limited pool of listings competing for a larger pool of buyers.

Buyers can still find opportunities and while competition is heating up it's still not nearly what it was at the peak.

With interest rates holding and the market adjusting to the new normal. It will be interesting to see if more buyers enter the market and what impact that will have on the competition. More listings are hitting the market but it still doesn't seem to be keeping up with the demand.

1920x1048-Durham March 2023 by Brian Stanton

Housing prices are down year over year going back to January 2022 and there are lots of headlines on that topic, but there’s a silver lining if you look deeper.

Yes, the days and seeing double-digit price increases in such a short period of time are well behind us. As the market adjusts, we need to look ahead rather than behind to make informed decisions regarding our real estate. 

THE GOOD NEWS

While many buyers are still waiting, slightly more will enter the market in 2023 and those who do will find homes significantly more affordable than a year ago.

If you’re thinking of selling your home you should be feeling relief as pricing in many markets across the GTA is stabilizing and many areas and housing types saw the average price increase from December to January. On the street, we’re even starting to see many homes sell in multiple offers again.

Here are the stats for Markets Across the GTA in January 2023.

1080x1080-JAN 2023 Market Stats by Brian Stanton

THE BOTTOM LINE

A more balanced market offers you the opportunity to evaluate your situation and determine what the right move is for you without the pressure of wild bidding wars or the prospect of massive interest rate hikes.

CLOSING

We can expect another headline-grabbing set of statistics for year-over-year average pricing in February but if you’re thinking of making a move in today's market what’s more important is what is happening in the market today. 

If you need help determining if you can make the move you want to make in 2023. Reach out to us, we're happy to help.