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If you've been scanning the latest real estate headlines, it's easy to feel like you're getting mixed messages. One news outlet says the market is cooling, while another claims conditions are tightening. So, what’s actually happening on the ground across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) as we head into the second half of summer?
Rather than dramatic shifts in either direction, July delivered a market that is steadily normalizing. While total home sales took a minor pause year-over-year, the bigger story is on the supply side: new listings dropped significantly, which means active inventory is shrinking and buyer competition is quietly firming up in high-demand pockets.
July at a Glance: The Key Numbers
Here is how the stats broke down across the GTA compared to July of last year:
Total Sales: 5,995 homes sold, down slightly by 0.9% from 6,047.
Average Selling Price: $1,003,956, down 4.5% year-over-year from $1,051,600.
New Listings: 14,484, a sharp decline of 17.8% compared to last year's listing surge.
Active Listings: 26,098, down 12.1%, showing that overall standing inventory is being steadily absorbed.
Average Time on Market: 32 listing days (45 property days overall), giving buyers and sellers a more measured pace than the frenzied peaks of previous years.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, home sales actually edged higher while new inventory continued to slow. Fewer new options arriving each week meant buyers had slightly less leverage to negotiate aggressively than they did earlier this spring.
How Different Home Types Are Performing
Not all segments of the housing market are moving at the same pace. The freehold low-rise market—particularly detached homes—showed stronger buyer demand, whereas semi-detached homes and townhouses saw a modest pullback in transaction volume.
Detached Homes: Sales rose 0.6% year-over-year to 2,789 transactions, with an average price of $1,291,690 (-5.1% YoY).
Semi-Detached Homes: Sales dropped 5.9% to 557 transactions, averaging $964,922 (-7.4% YoY).
Townhouses: Sales fell 2.7% to 1,003 transactions, with an average price of $817,213 (-3.9% YoY).
Condo Apartments: Sales remained essentially flat (-0.1%) at 1,564 transactions, holding an average price of $636,323 (-2.3% YoY).
A Local Look: Durham Region
In Durham Region, market activity remained brisk compared to the wider GTA average. Durham recorded 725 sales in July with an average selling price of $834,312. Properties here moved in an average of just 27 days, reflecting solid demand for more accessible price points outside the Toronto core.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For Buyers: Less Choice, But More Price Stability
The flood of new listings that defined late 2024 and 2025 has receded back to historic norms. With new listings down nearly 18%, you won't see dozens of brand-new properties hitting your search alerts every morning. While prices are lower compared to last summer, well-priced homes in desirable locations are no longer sitting idle. If you're waiting for a massive price drop, the shrinking inventory suggests prices are stabilizing rather than plummeting.
For Sellers: Strategy & Pricing Are Everything
Sellers who expect 2021-era bidding wars overnight will need to adjust their strategy. Homes are taking just over a month on average to sell, so setting realistic, market-supported asking prices is essential. The good news? Shrinking active inventory means less competing supply on your street. If you present your home well and price it accurately, serious buyers are out there and active.
Final Word: A Stable, Balanced Landscape
The July market isn't a runaway boom, nor is it a downturn. Instead, it represents a calibrated, predictable environment where supply and demand are finding better equilibrium. As borrowing costs sit in a more manageable range and economic sentiment continues to clear, we expect buyer confidence to build steadily as we move toward the fall market.
Are you thinking about buying or selling in Durham Region or across the GTA heading into the fall? Reach out directly for a personalized breakdown of recent sales and active listings in your specific neighborhood.
