As 2025 comes to a close, RE/MAX is signalling a cautious comeback — not a boom, but a more stable, balanced real estate market in 2026.

• National home sales are projected to rise by about 3.4% in 2026, as built-up inventory meets renewed buyer interest.

• At the same time, average home prices are expected to ease by roughly 3.7%, creating what RE/MAX describes as “balanced conditions” across many markets.

• The overall tone: 2026 is less about dramatic swings and more about predictability, modest affordability improvements, and a shift toward buyer-friendly conditions.

According to RE/MAX, this reset may offer buyers more negotiating power and more inventory to choose from — a relief after years of overheated demand and tight supply.

Reflection: How 2025 Compared to Last Year’s Forecast

Looking back, 2025 brought a fair bit of volatility and cooling across the country’s real estate markets. By many measures, RE/MAX’s more cautious 2026 outlook seems rooted in what unfolded.

• Across many major markets, 2025 saw declining prices, weaker sales, and rising listings — conditions that paved the way for a more “balanced” 2026.

• RE/MAX itself acknowledged late in 2025 that after “years of volatility… the market may finally be inching toward a turning point.”

• The 2026 forecast — modest price declines and rising sales — aligns with this reality: a market resetting rather than rebounding sharply.

In short: 2025 largely validated caution, and RE/MAX’s 2026 outlook reflects a realistic, tempered optimism rather than hype.

What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect in 2026

For buyers:

• More choices and more inventory across many markets. Balanced pricing + increased supply could mean better value, especially for first-time buyers or those priced out in recent years.

• Less frenzy, more stability. With prices softening modestly, negotiation may become more common — and successful.

For sellers:

• Competition may be stronger. Homes will still move — but sellers who price competitively, present well, and stay realistic will have the best shot.

For the overall market:

• 2026 may not deliver a dramatic rebound — but it could mark the start of a more sustainable, predictable environment.

• Gradual home-ownership activity could resume as affordability improves a bit and buyer confidence increases.

What This Means (or Could Mean) for Durham Region

RE/MAX did not provide a public 2026 forecast specifically for Durham Region. But looking at what we do know offers useful context:

• Most recent publicly shared data (from a regional roundup) puts the **average selling price in Durham at about C$840,833 (November 2025).

• By comparison: under the prior 2025 forecast from RE/MAX, the expected year-end average price was around C$855,085. (Your earlier data.)

That means Durham’s actual pricing is already slightly below what was forecast — suggesting moderate price softening in line with broader national trends.

Even without a 2026-specific Durham forecast, the national RE/MAX outlook provides an implicit signal: if conditions mirror the national trend, 2026 may bring more choice and slightly better affordability — which could benefit buyers in Durham. For sellers, realism remains key.

Final Word: A Calibrated Reset — Not a Rush, But an Opportunity

2026 isn’t being painted as the year of a runaway real estate boom. Instead, under RE/MAX’s new outlook, we may see a measured market reset, with more moderate pricing, steady demand, and healthier supply-demand balance.

For Canadians: it could mean a more stable, less stressful environment for buying or selling.

For Durham-area buyers and sellers: it’s a chance to approach the market with realistic expectations — and perhaps find opportunity in the balance.

Sources: REMAX Canada, Newswire, Canada Housing Market, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Yahoo Finance

What’s driving real estate demand as we start 2022?

The GTA market continues to be affected by a housing supply crunch and an ongoing demand. While 2021 was the best year for new housing starts in Ontario since 1977 buyers won’t likely see the benefit from added inventory for at least a couple of years. Across the province, we have a long way to go in terms of adding housing inventory to meet demand. Currently, a large number of buyers from 2021 are still trying to make a purchase in 2022 and that will keep demand high to kick start 2022. 

Expect to see a very strong return of international immigration further increasing demand for housing in the GTA throughout 2022. Canada reached its 2021 target adding 401,000 new permanent residents and plans on adding 411,000 new immigrants in 2022 to support economic growth and shore up labour shortages across the country. The influx of new residents will keep the housing market competitive.

So what’s the bottom line? 2022 will continue to be a good year to sell with high demand and prices forecast to increase.

Sources:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-meets-2021-immigration-target-with-401000-new-permanent-residents-2021-12-23/

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2021-2023.html

https://financialpost.com/moneywise-pro/no-relief-in-2022-experts-predictions-for-canadas-housing-market 

What could slow the housing market in 2022?

The obvious answer is an increase in lending rates. Mortgage interest rates have already seen slight increases in 2021 and the Bank of Canada has hinted that it will be tightening its policies in 2022. In 2021 we saw changes to the mortgage stress test moving from 4.79% qualifying rate to 5.25% and a 0.5% increase in mortgage rates, in 2022 we may see more increases.

“Doug Porter, chief economist and managing director at BMO Financial Group, says financial markets are bracing for as many as five 25-basis point increases in the Bank of Canada’s lending rate next year, which would take it to 1.5 percent from 0.25 percent today.”  - Financial Post

The key factors impacting potential rate increases could be the impact of inflation on the economy, the impact of COVID-19 variants like Omicrom as well as the US Federal Reserve who have already positioned themselves for a rate hike in 2022. As a general rule of thumb, US interest rate changes tend to have an impact on longer-term loans like mortgages in Canada.

Look for mortgage rates to increase throughout the year. As prices rise and borrowing costs grow we could see a slow down in sales volume and there is potential prices level off but even a 1.5% bump in interest rates would still be below the qualifying rate for mortgages. With inventory so low it may not have a huge impact on prices.

So, what’s the bottom line? Mortgage rates will affect borrowing costs but not necessarily impact pricing and there will still be lots of buyers competing for a limited supply. If you’re thinking of making a move start preparing now. Talk with your lender about how rising rates could impact your actual borrowing costs as the year unfolds and start looking for available homes in your desired areas. It may take time to find what you’re looking for so being proactive will put you in a more favourable position.

Need a reliable contact to discuss your mortgage needs? Message us and we can provide some excellent options.

Sources: 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/powell-canada-rates-column-don-pittis-1.6286628

https://time.com/nextadvisor/mortgages/mortgage-prediction-2022/https://financialpost.com/moneywise-pro/no-relief-in-2022-experts-predictions-for-canadas-housing-market 

What else could impact the market in 2022?

There are a few unknowns that may have an impact on the GTA real estate market in 2022. Government intervention into the housing market is always a cause for concern and the mortgage stress test is also being revisited in 2022. In 2021 the housing market was front and centre during the federal election and it will be a defining issue in this year’s provincial election but regardless of the outcome, we’re not likely to see the effects of federal and provincial elections in the form of intervention in 2022. 

Covid-19 and the uncertainty surrounding the Omicron variant is also an unknown factor. Although if history is any sort of predictor COVID-19 should have little impact on the trend in real estate prices. Recall in 2020 when the CMHC predicted a 9-18% drop in housing prices at the beginning of the pandemic and since that time the market has been on fire with the average price for a home in Ontario increasing by 44% (CREA). In Durham Region, the average sold price of a detached home in December was $1.178MM and in Toronto $1.69MM. 

So, what’s the bottom line? If you’re planning on buying in 2022 a change to the mortgage stress test could impact what you can afford so getting out ahead of any changes could help. So far COVID-19 has not had a negative impact on real estate prices and we’re not seeing policy changes impacting housing yet, but these are factors to watch.

Sources: 

TRREB Market Watch December 2021

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-housing-november-1.628649https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cmhc-stands-by-forecast-for-sharp-price-drop-in-canada-1.1497129

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-housing-costs-home-prices-ndp-liberal-green-1.6284033 

Most experts agree that the GTA real estate market cannot continue on its current trajectory forever and feel 2022 should start off strong with similar sales numbers to 2021 yet they expect the market to slow as we move into the second half of the year and rising interest rates take effect. That may be true but don’t expect a reverse in pricing trends. As per Clayton Jarvis of Financial Post’s Moneywise column “People have been calling Canadian real estate’s upward trajectory ‘unsustainable’ for almost a decade now.” 

Sources: https://financialpost.com/moneywise-pro/no-relief-in-2022-experts-predictions-for-canadas-housing-market 

So, what’s the bottom line?

You decide what’s best for you. If you’re waiting for the perfect timing to make your move you could be waiting a while. The reality is that there is never a perfect time to move. It’s about what’s right for you and your goals for homeownership. If you’re thinking about making a move in 2022 your best bet is to speak to a Realtor® and get the lay of the land in your community. We can help you with 40+ combined years of experience helping people just like you buy and sell in the GTA. We can connect you with trusted lenders and support you through the process from start to finish.