The spring market accelerated in May as home sales rose 6.3% year-over-year. However, with new listings dropping sharply by nearly 19%, available winter inventory is being steadily absorbed, gradually shifting competition back into several GTA neighborhoods.

🔍 By the Numbers: May at a Glance

• Total Sales: 6,583 (+6.3% YoY, +10.7% MoM seasonally adjusted)

• Average Selling Price: $1,069,700 (–4.6% YoY, +1.7% MoM unadjusted)

• Active Listings: 26,927 (–13.3% YoY)

• New Listings: 17,698 (–18.9% YoY)

• Days on Market:

  • Property DOM (PDOM): 42 days

  • Listing DOM (LDOM): 27 days

• Months of Inventory (Trend): 4.8 months — Market tracks as BALANCED, but tightening monthly.

🧠 Top Takeaway

We are witnessing a persistent story of absorption. For the third consecutive month, GTA home sales outperformed last year’s figures. Because new supply plummeted by nearly 19% annually, existing standing inventory is thinning out. While average prices are still lower than they were in the spring of 2025, the month-over-month price bump shows that local competition is steadily returning.

What's happening locally? Durham Region & Toronto Insights

The suburban-urban divide continues to control individual market paces, creating distinct conditions depending on where you look.

🏘 Segment Performance

Detached Homes

• Total Sales: 3,236 (+7.9% YoY)

• Average Price: $1,358,131 (–4.7% YoY)

• Market Status: Balanced. Detached properties saw the most active demand in May, specifically concentrated in the $1M to $1.5M price range.

Condo Apartments

• Total Sales: 1,535 (+3.6% YoY)

• Average Price: $639,468 (–6.4% YoY)

• Market Status: Buyer-Leaning. Though condo demand has stabilized and stopped deteriorating, it remains the segment facing the heaviest annual price discounts.

Durham Region

• Total Sales: 804 | New Listings: 1,978

• Average Price: $851,065

• Market Status: Balanced. Durham continues to represent the most price-accessible suburban alternative in the 905, maintaining steady absorption without hitting frantic price spikes.

City of Toronto (416)

• Total Sales: 2,377 (+3.2% YoY)

• Average Price: $1,108,292

• Market Status: Balanced / Buyer-Leaning. Toronto proper remains highly active, but the large volume of existing options still guarantees substantial buyer leverage.

🏦 Economic & Financing Context

• Bank of Canada Interest Rate: The central bank held its policy rate steady at 2.25% (with Prime at 4.5%) in its latest announcement. Economists suggest the Bank is navigating cautiously due to weak Q1 economic growth data mixed with persistent global supply risks.

• The Renewal Trap: The Bank of Canada recently highlighted a rising trend where falling home prices over the past year could potentially trap a subset of GTA borrowers at renewal, limiting their ability to switch lenders if their equity has thinned out.

• Mortgage Rate Realities: Five-year fixed rates are averaging roughly 5.09-5.09%, while short-term fixed rates sit between 4.64% and 4.89%. Borrowers are prioritizing fundamental budget planning over speculating on rapid future rate cuts. Variable rates are being offered below 4%.

🔄 What this means for you?

For Buyers:

Improved affordability remains your greatest asset this season, with average prices still sitting roughly $50,000 below last year's benchmarks. However, do not expect listings to linger indefinitely. Standing inventory fell 13.3% annually, meaning the "buyer's paradise" of endless choice is transitioning into a standard, balanced environment.

For Sellers:

The reduction in new supply (–18.9% YoY) works heavily in your favor. You are competing with far fewer newly listed homes than sellers did last spring. While aggressive overpricing will still leave a property sitting for over a month, accurate market pricing is yielding solid, efficient sales as buyer demand trends upward.

🔮 Quick Verdict

📞 Get our family working for yours

The spring market has hit its peak, and inventory is moving. Successfully making a move right now relies entirely on understanding micro-local data—because a condo in Toronto demands a completely different strategy than a detached home in Durham. Let our experience guide your next transition.

👉 Contact us today to build your real estate strategy.

CONTACT THE JSA TEAM

📌 Supporting Sources

• TRREB Market Watch Report (May 2026): https://trreb.ca/market-data/market-watch/

• Bank of Canada Renewal Risks: Canadian Mortgage Trends Analysis

• Economic Hold Commentary: The Toronto Star & MPA Mag Reports

Spring is stirring: March home sales jumped over 30% from February as buyers moved to capitalize on improved affordability and significant negotiating power before the market tightens further.

🔍 By the Numbers: March at a Glance

• Total Sales: 5,039 (+1.7% YoY, +30.27% MoM)

• Average Selling Price: $1,017,796 (–6.7% YoY, +0.9% MoM)

• Active Listings: 21,596 (–8.0% YoY, +11.8% MoM)

• New Listings: 14,442 (–16.7% YoY)

• Sales-to-New Listings Ratio: 35% (Up from 29% last year)

• Days on Market:

  • Property DOM: 47 days (Down 13% from February)

  • Listing DOM: 31 days

• Months of Inventory: 4.29 months — Market remains BALANCED.

🧠 Top Takeaway

The "Spring Surge" has arrived, but with a twist. While sales volume skyrocketed 30% month-over-month, new listings fell nearly 17% compared to last year. This tightening of supply means that while buyers still enjoy negotiating power today, the window of "flat" pricing may be closing as we move deeper into 2026.

What's happening locally? Durham Region Market Insights

While the broader GTA sits in balanced territory, local pockets like Durham are showing signs of a much faster recovery.

🏘 Segment Performance

Condos

• ~ 28.2% of total sales

• Average Price: $620,479

• 5.4 months of supply → Remains a Firm Buyer’s Market, though inventory is being absorbed faster as new listings fail to keep pace with sales.

Detached Homes

• ~ 44.4% of total sales

• Average Price: $1,342,375

• 4.17 months of supply → Balanced Market.

Durham Region

• 392 Sales | Average Price: $850,304

• 2.96 months of inventory → Inventory has dipped below the 3-month mark, a strong signal for sellers. Durham continues to be the GTA's top performer for seller-favorable conditions.

City of Toronto

• 951 Sales | 4,912 Listings

• 5.17 months of inventory → Buyer’s Market. The 416 remains the best bet for buyers looking for maximum choice.

🏦 Economic & Financing Context

• Bank of Canada: The policy rate was held steady at 2.25% on March 18, 2026. The next announcement is set for April 29, with markets pricing in a 96% chance of another hold.

• Bond Market & Fixed Rates: 5-year Government of Canada bond yields are hovering near 3.06%. This has caused some fixed mortgage rates to edge slightly higher recently, making the cost of "breaking" a mortgage more expensive for some.

• The "Renewal Crunch": A recent TD study found that 56% of homeowners are cutting discretionary spending to prepare for higher payments at renewal.

• Stirring Demand: Despite renewal stress, 30% of prospective buyers say they are more likely to purchase before year-end, citing lower prices and rate stability as the primary "green lights".

🔄 What this means for you?

For Buyers:

The surface is beginning to bubble. While you still have "substantial negotiating power", the 16.7% drop in new listings suggests that the massive inventory selection we saw in January is starting to be absorbed. If you are one of the 75% of buyers currently saving for a down payment, now is the time to finalize your pre-approval before the "missing middle" supply tightens further.

For Sellers:

Inventory in the GTA is currently 8% lower than last year. In areas like Durham, where inventory is under 3 months, you are in a much stronger position than the "Buyer's Market" headlines suggest. With properties selling 13% faster than last month, the market is picking up speed—but correct pricing remains the bridge to a successful sale.

🔮 Quick Verdict

📞 Get our family working for yours

The market is shifting from "wait and see" to "active and moving." A cookie-cutter approach won't work when one neighborhood is in a Buyer's Market and the next is leaning toward Sellers. If you need help navigating these tightening conditions, reach out. We tailor our strategy to meet your unique goals.

👉 Contact us today to stay ahead of the spring market curve.

CONTACT THE JSA TEAM

📌 Supporting Sources

• TRREB Market Watch (March 2026): https://trreb.ca/market-data/market-watch/

• TD Survey on Homeowner Spending: Cantech Letter / TD News Release

• Bank of Canada Rate Announcement (March 18): RBC Economics

• Mortgage Rate Trends: Canadian Mortgage Trends