Re/Max & Zoocasa 2025 Predictions

The 2025 housing market is shaping up to be a year of opportunity, especially in the Durham Region and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Two recent reports—Re/Max’s 2025 Canadian Housing Market Outlook and Zoocasa’s 2025 Canadian Housing Market Predictions—offer key insights that paint an optimistic picture for buyers, sellers, and investors alike. Here is how they see things playing out in 2025 and some potential tips for buyers and sellers within the Durham Region.

Lower Rates, Higher Demand

Both reports agree: Declining interest rates are expected to be a game-changer. With the Bank of Canada easing rates and new mortgage rules extending amortization periods to 30 years, sidelined buyers are poised to re-enter the market.

👉 First-Time Buyers Surge: Re/Max predicts an influx of first-time buyers, bolstered by improved affordability. This trend will likely drive demand for entry-level homes, such as townhouses, smaller detached homes, and even some condos.

Balanced Markets Dominate in Ontario

While 44% of Canadian markets will favor sellers, Durham Region is part of the 36% of Ontario markets projected to remain balanced.

✅ Durham’s Advantage: A balanced market means fair opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Prices in Durham are forecasted to rise by 5% over 2024 levels likely stimulated by competition amongst first-time buyers and more downsizers.

🏡 Affordability Shifts: 40% of Canadians are open to exploring new neighborhoods to mitigate affordability challenges. This could make Durham an attractive destination for those priced out of Toronto or other high-cost areas.

Downsizing & Inventory Growth

With 1.2 million Canadian mortgages up for renewal in 2025 (per CMHC), many homeowners will look to downsize to smaller, more affordable properties.

👉 Takeaway for Sellers: If you're considering an upgrade from an entry-level home in 2025, now could be an ideal time to prepare, as downsizing demand and an influx in first-time buyers are expected to fuel competition in the smaller detached and townhouse segments.

Opportunities for Condo Buyers

The condo market has faced challenges, particularly in the GTA, where sales hit record lows in 2024. However, as competition heats up in detached and attached housing, condos could see a resurgence as buyers pivot to more affordable options.

Key Takeaways for 2025

1. Buyers: 2025 is your chance to secure a home before interest rates dip further, potentially pushing 44% of markets into seller territory and driving prices up even in balanced markets. Durham’s balanced market offers excellent opportunities.

2. Sellers: With a 5% price increase expected in Durham, listing your home in the spring market could maximize your return. Better yet, beat the inventory to market and get your listing up ahead of your competition this spring.

What’s Next?

Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply planning your next move, 2025 is brimming with potential. If you’re ready to make a move in the Durham Region or GTA, let us guide you through every step.

Looking to downsize or invest? Drop your questions in the comments or contact us today. Let’s make your 2025 real estate goals a reality!

CONTACT OUR TEAM NOW:

• Ben Stanton, Broker @ 905-995-3372

• Jim Stanton, Broker @905-409-9967

• Brian Stanton, Salesperson @416-571-5272

Have the Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate Cuts been enough to stimulate the Fall Market?

As we move into the final quarter of 2024, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market remains dynamic, with signs of both stability and uncertainty. While home sales have shown a modest increase year-over-year and new listings are flooding the market, the anticipated impact of recent interest rate cuts has yet to fully materialize. Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and a slightly more favorable mortgage landscape, but sellers face challenges in pricing homes effectively amidst longer days on market. In this recap, we'll explore key market trends, the evolving mortgage environment, and what these changes mean for buyers and sellers as we approach the end of 2024.

Market Summary

Sales Momentum: October’s sales increased by a remarkable 44.4% from 2023 and 33% from the previous month. This impressive growth points to heightened buyer engagement, likely driven by recent interest rate cuts and increasing consumer confidence in a more balanced market.

• Listing Dynamics: New listings rose modestly by 4.3% year-over-year but fell 15.3% from September, hinting that sellers may be holding back due to the approaching holiday season or expectations of better pricing ahead.

• Active Listings: Although active listings were up by 25.3% year-over-year, they decreased by 4.4% from the previous month, showing signs that excess inventory is gradually being absorbed by the market.

• Price Trends: Average home prices showed a 1.1% increase from last year and a 2.5% rise from September, indicating gradual price stability with slight upward pressure as competition picks up.

• Market Status: With 3.68 months of inventory available, the GTA remains in a balanced market, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 43%. This offers both buyers and sellers unique opportunities as the market continues to stabilize.

• Time to Sell: Listings spent an average of 27 days on the market, with an overall average selling time of 43 days when you take into account listings that terminated and relisted. This reflects the need for competitive pricing and strategic positioning as buyers weigh their options in a still-saturated market.

What's happening locally?  Toronto Market Insights

Impact of Interest Rates

Mortgage Rate Dynamics and Their Impact

On October 23, 2024, the Bank of Canada made a bold move by lowering its policy rate by 0.50% to 3.75%, the largest cut since the cycle began in June. While many anticipated that this would stimulate home sales, October's market activity hints that the mere expectation of the cut may have already influenced buyers to act. As we approach the Bank’s December 11 announcement, another potential rate cut could further drive purchasing activity, particularly for those with increased purchasing power in a more favorable borrowing environment.

Effect on Variable-Rate Mortgages: For adjustable-rate mortgage holders, this recent rate cut could equate to approximately $30 less in monthly payments per $100,000 of mortgage debt, based on a 25-year amortization. For fixed-payment variable-rate mortgage holders, more of each payment will go toward building equity.

Impact on Fixed Rates: In contrast, fixed-rate mortgage holders may see modest rate hikes, as lenders have started adjusting rates slightly. These incremental adjustments stem partly from recent U.S. elections and market responses.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

The surge in sales activity shows competition is heating up, but with a substantial inventory still on the market, buyers continue to have leverage for negotiating and submitting conditional offers. However, this window of opportunity won’t remain open indefinitely, as sidelined buyers are likely to re-enter as rate cuts continue.

For Sellers

For those planning to sell, October’s sales momentum is an encouraging signal. As inventory often slows around the holiday season, there’s potential for fewer listings and increased demand from motivated buyers. If inventory continues to shrink, sellers can anticipate stronger competition and possibly favorable pricing dynamics.

In Conclusion 

With active listings still substantial but gradually reducing the market's balance will depend on whether sales growth continues into the winter months. The next few months will reveal if buyers will jump in now or await further rate cuts, which will likely intensify competition as we move toward spring.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized support to navigate this evolving market and make the most of current opportunities.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372

Have the Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate Cuts been enough to stimulate the Fall Market?

As we move into the final quarter of 2024, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market remains dynamic, with signs of both stability and uncertainty. While home sales have shown a modest increase year-over-year and new listings are flooding the market, the anticipated impact of recent interest rate cuts has yet to fully materialize. Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and a slightly more favorable mortgage landscape, but sellers face challenges in pricing homes effectively amidst longer days on market. In this recap, we'll explore key market trends, the evolving mortgage environment, and what these changes mean for buyers and sellers as we approach the end of 2024.

Market Summary

Sales Momentum: October’s sales increased by a remarkable 44.4% from 2023 and 33% from the previous month. This impressive growth points to heightened buyer engagement, likely driven by recent interest rate cuts and increasing consumer confidence in a more balanced market.

• Listing Dynamics: New listings rose modestly by 4.3% year-over-year but fell 15.3% from September, hinting that sellers may be holding back due to the approaching holiday season or expectations of better pricing ahead.

• Active Listings: Although active listings were up by 25.3% year-over-year, they decreased by 4.4% from the previous month, showing signs that excess inventory is gradually being absorbed by the market.

• Price Trends: Average home prices showed a 1.1% increase from last year and a 2.5% rise from September, indicating gradual price stability with slight upward pressure as competition picks up.

• Market Status: With 3.68 months of inventory available, the GTA remains in a balanced market, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 43%. This offers both buyers and sellers unique opportunities as the market continues to stabilize.

• Time to Sell: Listings spent an average of 27 days on the market, with an overall average selling time of 43 days when you take into account listings that terminated and relisted. This reflects the need for competitive pricing and strategic positioning as buyers weigh their options in a still-saturated market.

What's happening locally? Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

Impact of Interest Rates

Mortgage Rate Dynamics and Their Impact

On October 23, 2024, the Bank of Canada made a bold move by lowering its policy rate by 0.50% to 3.75%, the largest cut since the cycle began in June. While many anticipated that this would stimulate home sales, October's market activity hints that the mere expectation of the cut may have already influenced buyers to act.

As we approach the Bank’s December 11 announcement, another potential rate cut could further drive purchasing activity, particularly for those with increased purchasing power in a more favorable borrowing environment.

Effect on Variable-Rate Mortgages: For adjustable-rate mortgage holders, this recent rate cut could equate to approximately $30 less in monthly payments per $100,000 of mortgage debt, based on a 25-year amortization. For fixed-payment variable-rate mortgage holders, more of each payment will go toward building equity.

Impact on Fixed Rates: In contrast, fixed-rate mortgage holders may see modest rate hikes, as lenders have started adjusting rates slightly. These incremental adjustments stem partly from recent U.S. elections and market responses.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

The surge in sales activity shows competition is heating up, but with a substantial inventory still on the market, buyers continue to have leverage for negotiating and submitting conditional offers. However, this window of opportunity won’t remain open indefinitely, as sidelined buyers are likely to re-enter as rate cuts continue.

For Sellers

For those planning to sell, October’s sales momentum is an encouraging signal. As inventory often slows around the holiday season, there’s potential for fewer listings and increased demand from motivated buyers. If inventory continues to shrink, sellers can anticipate stronger competition and possibly favorable pricing dynamics.

In Conclusion 

With active listings still substantial but gradually reducing the market's balance will depend on whether sales growth continues into the winter months. The next few months will reveal if buyers will jump in now or await further rate cuts, which will likely intensify competition as we move toward spring.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized support to navigate this evolving market and make the most of current opportunities.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

Have the Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate Cuts been enough to stimulate the Fall Market?

As we move into the final quarter of 2024, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market remains dynamic, with signs of both stability and uncertainty. While home sales have shown a modest increase year-over-year and new listings are flooding the market, the anticipated impact of recent interest rate cuts has yet to fully materialize. Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and a slightly more favorable mortgage landscape, but sellers face challenges in pricing homes effectively amidst longer days on market. In this recap, we'll explore key market trends, the evolving mortgage environment, and what these changes mean for buyers and sellers as we approach the end of 2024.

Market Summary

• Sales Momentum: Sales in September 2024 saw an 8.5% increase compared to September 2023 and remained relatively stable month-over-month, with just a 0.42% uptick.

• Listing Dynamics: New listings jumped significantly, increasing by 10.5% year-over-year and an impressive 44.2% from the previous month.

• Active Listings: Active listings surged by 35.5% compared to September 2023, and by 13.1% from last month, signaling more homes are entering the market.

• Price Trends: While average home prices dipped by 1% year-over-year, they rebounded with a 3.1% rise from August, indicating some short-term price recovery.

• Market Status: With five months of inventory available, the GTA remains in a buyer's market. The sales-to-new-listings ratio remained steady compared to last year but dropped by 12% from last month due to the influx of new listings.

• Time to Sell: On average, listings spent 28 days on the market, but properties took an overall average of 44 days to sell, reflecting the need for strategic pricing.

What's happening locally? Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

Impact of Interest Rates & New Mortgage Rules

New Mortgage Rules:

The Canadian government introduced new mortgage rules that will extend amortization periods to 30 years for first-time homebuyers and buyers of new builds, reducing monthly payments but increasing long-term costs. Additionally, mortgage insurance qualifications now apply to homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million, lowering the down payment requirements. 

Read more on how the new rules work and the pros and cons here.

Bank of Canada Rate Cuts & Fixed Rates:

On September 4th, 2024, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 0.25%, marking its third consecutive reduction, bringing it to 4.25%. A further rate cut, expected to be up to 0.50%, is anticipated on October 23rd. 

Fixed Rates which aren’t tied to the BoC policy rate but to Bonds have been trending down which have helped lower fixed-rate mortgages below 4% in some cases. This is a result of competition amongst the lenders according to Canadian Mortgage Trends. Recent fluctuations in the bond yield may change this. While interest rates continue to evolve, fixed rates remain more attractive than variable rates at present, offering buyers some stability.

The question remains not will they but when will variable rates get below fixed rates?

For buyers and sellers, these rate adjustments highlight the dynamic nature of the housing market. As more rate cuts are expected, more buyers could be incentivized to enter the market, but the landscape remains complex and ever-changing.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers

Buyers can take advantage of increased inventory, particularly in the condo market, and the prospect of better mortgage rates. However, it’s essential to stay vigilant, as competition may increase when the market reaches its lowest point. Working closely with a knowledgeable agent who can assess market trends and a lender who can navigate the shifting mortgage landscape will help ensure you secure the best deal.

For Sellers

For sellers, effective pricing is critical. The extended days on market, averaging 44 days, suggest that many homes are not being priced appropriately. This often leads to reduced investment in marketing and staging, which can further lengthen the selling process. Pricing your home strategically, based on current market data, can help attract serious buyers more quickly and avoid long listings and multiple price adjustments.

In Conclusion 

Despite the Bank of Canada's recent rate cuts, their immediate effect on the GTA real estate market has been limited, with sales and buyer activity yet to significantly pick up. The market remains in a buyer's territory, characterized by high inventory and longer selling periods. However, as interest rates continue to decrease and recent changes to mortgage qualifications and extended amortization periods begin to take effect, we anticipate a more substantial shift heading into late 2024 and into 2025. Both buyers and sellers should remain informed and ready to adapt to these evolving conditions, ensuring they make well-timed and strategic decisions in the months ahead.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized support to navigate this evolving market and make the most of current opportunities.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

Feeling stuck in the chicken-and-egg dilemma of buying your dream home and selling your current one? You’re not alone. It’s one of the most common questions we hear: "Should I buy first or sell first?" The good news is, there’s no wrong answer—just the right one for you.

Why This Matters:
It’s natural to feel uncertain about timing. Buying first means you might carry two mortgages temporarily. Selling first means you might need temporary housing. Either way, you’re wondering, What’s the safest option for my family and finances?

Here’s How to Decide:

1. Understand the Market:

   • In a seller’s market (where homes sell quickly), it can often be better to buy first. Why? If you sell first, you’ll benefit from the seller’s market, but when it comes time to buy, you’re competing with everyone else in a rising market, and your sale proceeds may not stretch as far. Buying first allows you to tackle the competitive buying situation upfront and then sell with confidence, knowing you have a place to move to.

   • In a buyer’s market (where homes take longer to sell), selling first is often the smarter choice. If prices are trending downward and there are plenty of properties that meet your needs, selling first ensures you secure the most value from your home. It may take longer, but when you transition to buying, you’ll be in a stronger position to negotiate with more options available.

   • In a balanced market (where homes sell in a reasonable time) the choice is yours. We always recommend assessing the volume of homes on the market that meet what you are looking for in your next home. If you find you have a lot of options it can be safe to sell first. If on the other hand, only something specific will do buying first is the way to go.

2. Know Your Finances:

   • If you buy first, explore bridge financing. This short-term loan helps cover the gap between your purchase and sale.

   • If you sell first, work with your Realtor to negotiate a longer closing date, giving you time to find your new home.

3. Consider Your Risk Tolerance:

   • If carrying two mortgages for a short time feels stressful, selling first provides peace of mind.

   • If you don’t want to rush into buying your next home, buying first gives you flexibility.

   • No matter which you choose, whether to buy or sell first you want to know the market conditions and have a plan for a transition in the market. When a seller’s market flips to a balanced or a buyer’s or vice versa it can throw a curve ball in the best-laid plans. That’s where partnering with an expert lender and realtor® becomes even more important.

Let’s Make It Easy:
Still unsure? We’ll sit down with you, review your finances, and help you navigate the local market. Together, we’ll build a plan that ensures you’re confident every step of the way. Give us a call or send us a message—we’d love to help!

GET OUR HELP NOW

The federal government is introducing 30-year amortization loan periods for all first-time homebuyers as well as buyers of new builds, even if it’s not their first home.

The government has also expanded mortgage insurance qualification to cover houses that cost more than $1 million, up to $1.5 million.

These changes are set to take effective Dec. 15, 2024.

THE BENEFITS FOR BUYERS

By stretching their payments for more years buyers can reduce their monthly payments increasing affordability and helping them pass the mortgage stress test when qualifying.

With mortgage insurance expanding to homes $1M - $1.5M more buyers will be able to enter the market in areas where average home prices are over the $1M mark with lower downpayment’s, including many neighbourhoods across the GTA. 

THE DRAWBACK 

The most obvious is that it will take longer to pay off your loan and that means you are paying interest for longer which means more interest over time.

HOW WILL THIS IMPACT THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

These changes may lead to an uptick in prices by bringing more buyers to the market, especially at a time where interest rates are coming down from recent highs. 

It is likely to have the biggest impact on homes valued just over the $1M mark by increasing the buyer pool for these homes which may send a ripple through the market and add to upward pressure on prices.

To learn more about how these impacts may affect your real estate goals, please reach out, we are always excited to share our knowledge and help you achieve success.

The federal government is introducing 30-year amortization loan periods for all first-time homebuyers as well as buyers of new builds, even if it’s not their first home.

The government has also expanded mortgage insurance qualification to cover houses that cost more than $1 million, up to $1.5 million.

These changes are set to take effective Dec. 15, 2024.

THE BENEFITS FOR BUYERS

By stretching their payments for more years buyers can reduce their monthly payments increasing affordability and helping them pass the mortgage stress test when qualifying.

With mortgage insurance expanding to homes $1M - $1.5M more buyers will be able to enter the market in areas where average home prices are over the $1M mark with lower downpayment’s, including many neighbourhoods across the GTA. 

THE DRAWBACK 

The most obvious is that it will take longer to pay off your loan and that means you are paying interest for longer which means more interest over time.

HOW WILL THIS IMPACT THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

These changes may lead to an uptick in prices by bringing more buyers to the market, especially at a time where interest rates are coming down from recent highs. 

It is likely to have the biggest impact on homes valued just over the $1M mark by increasing the buyer pool for these homes which may send a ripple through the market and add to upward pressure on prices.

To learn more about how these impacts may affect your real estate goals, please reach out, we are always excited to share our knowledge and help you achieve success.