As your trusted real estate expert, I'm here to give you a straightforward rundown of what's been happening in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market this past August. Let's dive right in:

Cooling Off, but Steady:

The GTA real estate market continued to cool off in August. A few factors played a role, such as interest rate increases by the Bank of Canada, economic uncertainty, and a shortage of available homes. So, it's been a bit more relaxed for both buyers and sellers lately.

Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

*See insights for Markham/Stouffville & Northumberland at the bottom.

Home Sales:

In August, a total of 5,294 homes were sold across the GTA. This is a bit up from July but down 5.2% compared to last year. The most popular choices among buyers were detached homes and condo apartments.

Home Prices:

The average selling price for a home in the GTA was around $1,082,496. It's up slightly from last year but down 3.2% from July. So, prices have been holding fairly steady, with some fluctuations in condos and semis in the Durham Region.

Inventory Levels:

Right now, we have about 2.2 months of inventory. Technically, this means it's still a seller's market (anything below 3 months). But, due to the impact of interest rates, it's more balanced. We did see more listings this year, but overall, we still don't have enough homes for sale.

Days on Market:

Homes are selling faster than they did last year, but it's taking a bit longer than it did in July. On average, homes in Durham Region took 22 days to sell, and in Toronto, it was around 29 days.

Mortgage Rates and Affordability:

Interest rates have gone up ten times since April 2022. That's affecting how much people can afford to borrow. So, affordability is on the minds of many buyers. High demand and low supply are also keeping prices from dropping considerably.

Investor Trends:

We're noticing that condo investors in Toronto are starting to sell their units because of those rising interest rates. This might make condos a better option for homebuyers.

External Factors:

Interest rates are still a big deal. They affect how much people can spend on a home and how motivated sellers are. Plus, we're seeing a lot of new folks moving to the GTA, which is keeping things competitive despite challenges for buyers.

Local Market Variations:

Certain areas, like Whitby, saw a 25.2% increase in condo prices. But don’t be fooled. This was likely because there were fewer sales, and some specific properties affected the average price. We call those sales outliers.

What's Next:

As we head into September and the Fall Market, we usually see more listings and more buyers. The Bank of Canada decided to keep interest rates at 5% for now, so that gives buyers some short-term certainty. We predict a more balanced market in the near future, with financing costs being a bit high for aggressive bidding wars, but still, strong demand and low inventory will keep prices competitive.

What's the Takeaway

In a nutshell, the GTA real estate market is still active, but it's finding a more balanced groove. If you're buying or selling, make sure to stay updated with these trends, and feel free to reach out if you have any questions or need assistance. We're here to help you navigate the ever-changing real estate landscape!

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS

Canada's economy experienced a modest 0.3% growth in GDP during May. However, it is projected that this growth may slow down in June, with an expected decrease of 0.2%. If this projection holds true, it would result in a 1.2% increase in the economy for Q2 of 2023, which is lower than the previous quarter's 3.4% increase and also falls short of the Bank of Canada's initial estimate of a 1.5% increase for Q2. The slowdown in economic growth has been a focal point for the Bank of Canada, and it may impact their decision on implementing another rate hike in September.

Given the recent economic performance and projections, there could be potential implications for the Fall Real Estate Market. The lower-than-expected GDP growth may affect consumer confidence and spending patterns. However, the overall impact on the real estate market will depend on various factors, including inflation rates and interest rates, which are yet to be announced.

To have a clearer picture of how the Fall Real Estate Market may be affected, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the upcoming updates on inflation (August 10th) and GDP for Canada (September 1st), as well as the rate announcement on September 6th. These key economic indicators will provide valuable insights into the direction of the economy and its potential impact on the real estate sector.

That said, the biggest factor for real estate in recent months has been interest rates. As we have seen throughout 2023 when interest rates stabilize more buyers enter the market and that puts upward pressure on pricing.

Below you can find a schedule of all Bank of Canada interest rate announcements for the remainder of 2023:

• Wednesday, September 6
• Wednesday, October 25* Monetary Policy Report Published
• Wednesday, December 6

Sources: Bank of Canada News / Summary provided by Steven J. King, Principal Broker at Verico SGH Mortgages Inc. 

The market was more balanced in July

The market was more balanced in the Durham Region, yet still considered a seller's market* with only 2 months of inventory despite a decline in sales and average price across the region in July.

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

What's the Takeaway?

The market has slowed down slightly in July but historically the dog days of summer are when demand decreases due to buyers putting off their searches. However, buyers could also be feeling the results of June’s interest rate announcement when the Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 0.25%.

Sellers need to stay abreast of market conditions especially as we head into September when the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement will take place.

Buyers can take advantage of summer months with a little less competition and perhaps feel a little less rushed with average days on the market increasing.

What should we expect for the Fall Market?

Is this month’s sales a result of seasonality or the Bank of Canada’s interest rate increase in June? That is the question. It’s likely a little of both. If September brings another rate increase we can expect that to further impact purchasing power and in turn sales and pricing in the Durham Region.

If not the Fall Market may bring more buyers back into the market and increase competition for a limited supply of homes.

Read How will Canada’s Economy Impact the Fall Market

As always follow us and reach out with any questions you have on this ever-evolving real estate market.

*What constitutes a seller's, buyer's, or balanced market?

• 2 or fewer months of inventory is a seller's market
• 3-4 months of inventory is a balanced market
• 5+ months of inventory is a buyers market

If no new properties came on the market it would take less than 2 months to sell all the available homes.

What's Happening in The Durham Region

It's still a Seller's Market, albeit cooling. 

With just over 2 months of inventory, it remains a seller's market.  Inventory increased in June and sales faltered down 15.8% in Durham from the prior month while pricing remained stable.

The Bank of Canada's June interest rate hike and the lack of inventory meeting buyer needs to this point have driven some buyers to the sidelines. 

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

What's the Takeaway?

With inventory increasing and fewer buyers in the market the way a home is prepared, priced, and marketed is more important than in the last quarter. Inventory may have increased but it is still very low. Sellers who are prepared to attract buyers with the right listing strategy will come out on top.

Buyers who are qualified and prepared can take advantage of the slowing sales volume and increased inventory. Connect with experts like us to determine what your options are and how best to approach this market.

Could the market cool off?

Yes, in June we have already seen significant increases in new listings while sales have declined. While pricing has remained stable increasing interest rates impact affordability for buyers and that could continue to cool the market.  

The next big announcement from the Bank of Canada is set to take place in Septmeber, 2023. Follow us to see what happens with interest rates and how that will affect the real estate market. *** July 12th  Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark rate to 5%. This puts prime rate at 7.20%.***

As always follow us and reach out with any questions you have on this ever-evolving real estate market.