Have the Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate Cuts been enough to stimulate the Fall Market?

As we move into the final quarter of 2024, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market remains dynamic, with signs of both stability and uncertainty. While home sales have shown a modest increase year-over-year and new listings are flooding the market, the anticipated impact of recent interest rate cuts has yet to fully materialize. Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and a slightly more favorable mortgage landscape, but sellers face challenges in pricing homes effectively amidst longer days on market. In this recap, we'll explore key market trends, the evolving mortgage environment, and what these changes mean for buyers and sellers as we approach the end of 2024.

Market Summary

• Sales Momentum: Sales in September 2024 saw an 8.5% increase compared to September 2023 and remained relatively stable month-over-month, with just a 0.42% uptick.

• Listing Dynamics: New listings jumped significantly, increasing by 10.5% year-over-year and an impressive 44.2% from the previous month.

• Active Listings: Active listings surged by 35.5% compared to September 2023, and by 13.1% from last month, signaling more homes are entering the market.

• Price Trends: While average home prices dipped by 1% year-over-year, they rebounded with a 3.1% rise from August, indicating some short-term price recovery.

• Market Status: With five months of inventory available, the GTA remains in a buyer's market. The sales-to-new-listings ratio remained steady compared to last year but dropped by 12% from last month due to the influx of new listings.

• Time to Sell: On average, listings spent 28 days on the market, but properties took an overall average of 44 days to sell, reflecting the need for strategic pricing.

What's happening locally? Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

Impact of Interest Rates & New Mortgage Rules

New Mortgage Rules:

The Canadian government introduced new mortgage rules that will extend amortization periods to 30 years for first-time homebuyers and buyers of new builds, reducing monthly payments but increasing long-term costs. Additionally, mortgage insurance qualifications now apply to homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million, lowering the down payment requirements. 

Read more on how the new rules work and the pros and cons here.

Bank of Canada Rate Cuts & Fixed Rates:

On September 4th, 2024, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 0.25%, marking its third consecutive reduction, bringing it to 4.25%. A further rate cut, expected to be up to 0.50%, is anticipated on October 23rd. 

Fixed Rates which aren’t tied to the BoC policy rate but to Bonds have been trending down which have helped lower fixed-rate mortgages below 4% in some cases. This is a result of competition amongst the lenders according to Canadian Mortgage Trends. Recent fluctuations in the bond yield may change this. While interest rates continue to evolve, fixed rates remain more attractive than variable rates at present, offering buyers some stability.

The question remains not will they but when will variable rates get below fixed rates?

For buyers and sellers, these rate adjustments highlight the dynamic nature of the housing market. As more rate cuts are expected, more buyers could be incentivized to enter the market, but the landscape remains complex and ever-changing.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers

Buyers can take advantage of increased inventory, particularly in the condo market, and the prospect of better mortgage rates. However, it’s essential to stay vigilant, as competition may increase when the market reaches its lowest point. Working closely with a knowledgeable agent who can assess market trends and a lender who can navigate the shifting mortgage landscape will help ensure you secure the best deal.

For Sellers

For sellers, effective pricing is critical. The extended days on market, averaging 44 days, suggest that many homes are not being priced appropriately. This often leads to reduced investment in marketing and staging, which can further lengthen the selling process. Pricing your home strategically, based on current market data, can help attract serious buyers more quickly and avoid long listings and multiple price adjustments.

In Conclusion 

Despite the Bank of Canada's recent rate cuts, their immediate effect on the GTA real estate market has been limited, with sales and buyer activity yet to significantly pick up. The market remains in a buyer's territory, characterized by high inventory and longer selling periods. However, as interest rates continue to decrease and recent changes to mortgage qualifications and extended amortization periods begin to take effect, we anticipate a more substantial shift heading into late 2024 and into 2025. Both buyers and sellers should remain informed and ready to adapt to these evolving conditions, ensuring they make well-timed and strategic decisions in the months ahead.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized support to navigate this evolving market and make the most of current opportunities.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

Feeling stuck in the chicken-and-egg dilemma of buying your dream home and selling your current one? You’re not alone. It’s one of the most common questions we hear: "Should I buy first or sell first?" The good news is, there’s no wrong answer—just the right one for you.

Why This Matters:
It’s natural to feel uncertain about timing. Buying first means you might carry two mortgages temporarily. Selling first means you might need temporary housing. Either way, you’re wondering, What’s the safest option for my family and finances?

Here’s How to Decide:

1. Understand the Market:

   • In a seller’s market (where homes sell quickly), it can often be better to buy first. Why? If you sell first, you’ll benefit from the seller’s market, but when it comes time to buy, you’re competing with everyone else in a rising market, and your sale proceeds may not stretch as far. Buying first allows you to tackle the competitive buying situation upfront and then sell with confidence, knowing you have a place to move to.

   • In a buyer’s market (where homes take longer to sell), selling first is often the smarter choice. If prices are trending downward and there are plenty of properties that meet your needs, selling first ensures you secure the most value from your home. It may take longer, but when you transition to buying, you’ll be in a stronger position to negotiate with more options available.

   • In a balanced market (where homes sell in a reasonable time) the choice is yours. We always recommend assessing the volume of homes on the market that meet what you are looking for in your next home. If you find you have a lot of options it can be safe to sell first. If on the other hand, only something specific will do buying first is the way to go.

2. Know Your Finances:

   • If you buy first, explore bridge financing. This short-term loan helps cover the gap between your purchase and sale.

   • If you sell first, work with your Realtor to negotiate a longer closing date, giving you time to find your new home.

3. Consider Your Risk Tolerance:

   • If carrying two mortgages for a short time feels stressful, selling first provides peace of mind.

   • If you don’t want to rush into buying your next home, buying first gives you flexibility.

   • No matter which you choose, whether to buy or sell first you want to know the market conditions and have a plan for a transition in the market. When a seller’s market flips to a balanced or a buyer’s or vice versa it can throw a curve ball in the best-laid plans. That’s where partnering with an expert lender and realtor® becomes even more important.

Let’s Make It Easy:
Still unsure? We’ll sit down with you, review your finances, and help you navigate the local market. Together, we’ll build a plan that ensures you’re confident every step of the way. Give us a call or send us a message—we’d love to help!

GET OUR HELP NOW

The federal government is introducing 30-year amortization loan periods for all first-time homebuyers as well as buyers of new builds, even if it’s not their first home.

The government has also expanded mortgage insurance qualification to cover houses that cost more than $1 million, up to $1.5 million.

These changes are set to take effective Dec. 15, 2024.

THE BENEFITS FOR BUYERS

By stretching their payments for more years buyers can reduce their monthly payments increasing affordability and helping them pass the mortgage stress test when qualifying.

With mortgage insurance expanding to homes $1M - $1.5M more buyers will be able to enter the market in areas where average home prices are over the $1M mark with lower downpayment’s, including many neighbourhoods across the GTA. 

THE DRAWBACK 

The most obvious is that it will take longer to pay off your loan and that means you are paying interest for longer which means more interest over time.

HOW WILL THIS IMPACT THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

These changes may lead to an uptick in prices by bringing more buyers to the market, especially at a time where interest rates are coming down from recent highs. 

It is likely to have the biggest impact on homes valued just over the $1M mark by increasing the buyer pool for these homes which may send a ripple through the market and add to upward pressure on prices.

To learn more about how these impacts may affect your real estate goals, please reach out, we are always excited to share our knowledge and help you achieve success.

The federal government is introducing 30-year amortization loan periods for all first-time homebuyers as well as buyers of new builds, even if it’s not their first home.

The government has also expanded mortgage insurance qualification to cover houses that cost more than $1 million, up to $1.5 million.

These changes are set to take effective Dec. 15, 2024.

THE BENEFITS FOR BUYERS

By stretching their payments for more years buyers can reduce their monthly payments increasing affordability and helping them pass the mortgage stress test when qualifying.

With mortgage insurance expanding to homes $1M - $1.5M more buyers will be able to enter the market in areas where average home prices are over the $1M mark with lower downpayment’s, including many neighbourhoods across the GTA. 

THE DRAWBACK 

The most obvious is that it will take longer to pay off your loan and that means you are paying interest for longer which means more interest over time.

HOW WILL THIS IMPACT THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

These changes may lead to an uptick in prices by bringing more buyers to the market, especially at a time where interest rates are coming down from recent highs. 

It is likely to have the biggest impact on homes valued just over the $1M mark by increasing the buyer pool for these homes which may send a ripple through the market and add to upward pressure on prices.

To learn more about how these impacts may affect your real estate goals, please reach out, we are always excited to share our knowledge and help you achieve success.

Is housing in the GTA becoming more affordable?

GTA home sales fell 5.3% year-over-year in August 2024, with a slight increase in new listings. Despite a modest dip in average home prices, the market remains well-supplied. Recent Bank of Canada rate cuts are expected to enhance affordability, especially for first-time buyers.

Market Summary

• Sales Momentum: Sales decreased by 5.3% compared to August 2023 and 7.72% from July 2024.

• Listing Dynamics: New listings were up 1.5% year-over-year but down 23% from July 2024.

• Active Listings: Active listings increased by 46% from 2023 but saw a 5.1% decline from July 2024.

• Price Trends: Average home prices were down 0.8% year-over-year and 7.72% from July 2024.

• Market Status: With 5 months of inventory, the GTA market is currently in a buyer's market. Sales to new listings ratio fell 3% from 2023 but rose 7% from July.

• Time to Sell: Listings spent an average of 28 days on the market, while properties were on the market for 44 days.

What's happening locally? Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

Impact of Interest Rates

On September 4th the Bank of Canada reduced it’s policy rate for the third straight time by a quarter point. The Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut is poised to improve housing affordability, particularly benefiting those with variable-rate mortgages. As borrowing costs decrease, we anticipate increased first-time buyer activity, which could stimulate the condo market and overall housing demand.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers

Buyers will find favorable conditions with lower mortgage rates and modestly reduced home prices. The current market offers more choices, particularly in the condo sector, making it an opportune moment for those looking to enter or upgrade within the market.

For Sellers

Sellers in the GTA may experience a slower pace of sales due to the year-over-year decline, despite a stable inventory. With average prices slightly down, sellers should be prepared for modest offers but can benefit from increased buyer interest as affordability improves over time.

In Conclusion 

The GTA housing market is navigating a period of adjustment with declining sales and slightly lower prices. The recent rate cut promises to boost affordability and buyer activity, setting the stage for a gradual market recovery.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized support to navigate this evolving market and make the most of current opportunities.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967

Is housing in the GTA becoming more affordable?

GTA home sales fell 5.3% year-over-year in August 2024, with a slight increase in new listings. Despite a modest dip in average home prices, the market remains well-supplied. Recent Bank of Canada rate cuts are expected to enhance affordability, especially for first-time buyers.

Market Summary

• Sales Momentum: Sales decreased by 5.3% compared to August 2023 and 7.72% from July 2024.

• Listing Dynamics: New listings were up 1.5% year-over-year but down 23% from July 2024.

• Active Listings: Active listings increased by 46% from 2023 but saw a 5.1% decline from July 2024.

• Price Trends: Average home prices were down 0.8% year-over-year and 7.72% from July 2024.

• Market Status: With 5 months of inventory, the GTA market is currently in a buyer's market. Sales to new listings ratio fell 3% from 2023 but rose 7% from July.

• Time to Sell: Listings spent an average of 28 days on the market, while properties were on the market for 44 days.

What's happening locally? Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

Impact of Interest Rates

On September 4th the Bank of Canada reduced it’s policy rate for the third straight time by a quarter point. The Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut is poised to improve housing affordability, particularly benefiting those with variable-rate mortgages. As borrowing costs decrease, we anticipate increased first-time buyer activity, which could stimulate the condo market and overall housing demand.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers

Buyers will find favorable conditions with lower mortgage rates and modestly reduced home prices. The current market offers more choices, particularly in the condo sector, making it an opportune moment for those looking to enter or upgrade within the market.

For Sellers

Sellers in the GTA may experience a slower pace of sales due to the year-over-year decline, despite a stable inventory. With average prices slightly down, sellers should be prepared for modest offers but can benefit from increased buyer interest as affordability improves over time.

In Conclusion 

The GTA housing market is navigating a period of adjustment with declining sales and slightly lower prices. The recent rate cut promises to boost affordability and buyer activity, setting the stage for a gradual market recovery.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized support to navigate this evolving market and make the most of current opportunities.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)