The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market favoured buyers in July with the inventory outpacing sales giving buyers lots to choose from and a slight relief in selling prices on average. With more rate cuts on the horizon, the Fall market could offer buyers a fantastic opportunity to strike.
Number of Sales:
Up 3.3% year-over-year
Down 1.7% month-over-month
Price Trend:
Average price down 0.9% year-over-year
Average price up 0.1% month-over-month
New Listings:
Up 18.5% compared to July 2023
Down 9.3% from June 2024
Active Listings:
Up 55.4% from July 2023
Up 1.1% compared to June 2024
Market Status:
Sales to new listings ratio at 33% (compared to 35% in July 2023)
Approximately 4.2 months of inventory, indicating a balanced market
Time on Market:
Listings remained on the market for an average of 36 days, up 6 day from June 2024
Despite a second interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada many buyers remain on the sidelines.
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In July, the Bank of Canada dropped its policy rate by another 0.25%. “We may be starting to see a positive impact from the two Bank of Canada rate cuts announced in June and July. Additionally, the cost of borrowing is anticipated to decline further in the coming months. Expect sales to accelerate as buyers benefit from lower monthly mortgage payments,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce.
Increased Choice: With a rise in new and active listings, buyers have more options to choose from.
Competition: Buyers are in the driver seat for now, but as the cost of borrowing goes down competition is likely to go up.
Move-up Buyers: This is a great time to move up the property ladder if you are looking to upgrade to a home with more space or property.
Selective Buyers: With more inventory available, buyers are becoming more selective and less aggressive.
Strategic Pricing: Properly pricing your home is crucial. It needs to be attractive enough to draw in buyers while still meeting your financial expectations.
Entry Level Homes Remain in High Demand: Homes under $1 million continue to generate considerable attention from buyers. Particularly entry-level townhomes and detached homes that are well-prepared.
July 2024 has once again been a month of balance and cautious optimism in the GTA real estate market. As we approach the fall market buyers will likely benefit from more interest rate cuts. With lower borrowing costs and a good inventory of homes on the market, this fall could offer GTA home buyers the opportunity they have been waiting for.
Whether you're looking to buy or sell a home, navigating the real estate market can be challenging. Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized service to help you achieve your real estate goals. Contact us today.
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market showed interesting dynamics in June 2024. While there were shifts in sales numbers and pricing trends, the market remained relatively balanced. Here’s a detailed look at the market activity and what it means for buyers and sellers.
Number of Sales:
Down 16.4% year-over-year
Down 11.41% month-over-month
Price Trend:
Average price down 1.6% year-over-year
Average price down 0.3% month-over-month
New Listings:
Up 12.3% compared to June 2023
Down 3.5% from May 2024
Active Listings:
Up 67.4% from June 2023
Up 8.5% compared to May 2024
Market Status:
Sales to new listings ratio at 35% (compared to 36% in June 2023)
Approximately 4 months of inventory, indicating a balanced market
Time on Market:
Listings remained on the market for an average of 20 days, up 1 day from May 2024
Despite an increase in inventory, the average price held relatively steady, showing resilience in the market and sellers not willing to sell below market value.
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In June, the Bank of Canada dropped its policy rate by 0.25%. While this move was expected to boost sales, the anticipated surge in buyer activity did not materialize. Many buyers chose to remain on the sidelines, as the adjustments in rates and prices were not sufficient to spur significant purchasing activity. The next rate announcement is expected on July 24th, which could further influence market conditions.
Increased Choice: With a rise in new and active listings, buyers have more options to choose from.
Less Competition: The decrease in sales means fewer bidding wars, although prime properties still attract multiple offers.
Opportunity in Luxury Market: The more expensive luxury market is starting to slow down and many markets are seeing homes sell below asking price. This is an opportunity for buyers who find themselves in a good position to buy.
Selective Buyers: With more inventory available, buyers are becoming more selective and less aggressive.
Strategic Pricing: Properly pricing your home is crucial. It needs to be attractive enough to draw in buyers while still meeting your financial expectations.
Entry Level Homes Remain in High Demand: Homes under $1million continue to generate considerable attention from buyers. Particularly entry level townhomes and detached homes that are well prepared.
June 2024 has been a month of balance and cautious optimism in the GTA real estate market. The modest changes in prices and sales, combined with increased inventory, provide a stable environment for both buyers and sellers. The summer is typically a slower time for sales as buyers direct their attention to summer holidays but good homes are still selling fast. As always we keep an eye on the market and wait to see how interest rates and rising inventory levels affect sales into the summer.
Whether you're looking to buy or sell a home, navigating the real estate market can be challenging. Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized service to help you achieve your real estate goals. Contact us today.
Greetings, GTA homebuyers and sellers! As we step into June, it's time to reflect on the dynamic real estate landscape that unfolded throughout May 2024. Join us as we uncover the latest insights and trends from the past month, offering a clear perspective on what May's market stats mean for your real estate journey. At Jim Stanton & Associates, our commitment to providing you with valuable information remains steadfast. Let's explore together the opportunities and possibilities that await in the ever-evolving GTA market.
Sales Momentum: Compared to the same period last year, sales decreased by 21.7%. There was a month-over-month decrease of 1.42%.
Listing Dynamics: New listings were up 21.1% from 2023 and 9.9% month-over-month.
Active Listings: Active listings saw a significant increase, up 83.3% from 2023 and 20.3% from April 2024.
Price Trends: The average price for homes was down 2.5% year-over-year but saw a slight increase of 0.8% month-over-month.
Balanced Market: With 3 months of inventory available, the market was balanced.
Time to Sell: Days on Market remained stable month-over-month.
Click here to view the TRREB Market Watch Report for May 2024
Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.
On June 5th, the Bank of Canada decreased its policy interest rate by 25 basis points. This is the first move since July 2023 and the first reduction since it began increasing the rate in March 2022 from its record low of 0.25%. The last time interest rates were lowered by the Bank of Canada was when the Bank dropped rates to an all-time low at the onset of the pandemic in March 2023.
Buyers are poised to benefit from the recent interest rate reduction, which is expected to increase buying power and push more buyers into the market. As a general rule of thumb, a ¼ point decrease in interest rates adds about $10,000 to the average borrower's buying power, though this depends on individual circumstances. However, with more buying power, competition is likely to heat up, especially for entry-level homes. Lower rates can be tempting, but remember that while waiting for further reductions, competition will likely increase. If you buy now, you pay today's prices and can always refinance at a lower rate later. Waiting might get you a lower rate, but you'll likely be paying a higher price.
Luxury homes have been taking longer to sell in the higher interest rate environment. Hang in there; lower rates may bring more buyers. Expect competition to increase even more on entry-level homes like townhomes and links. These homes are always in demand, and these changes will only spur more competition. With rates finally starting to come down, now is the time to plan your next move. Information is power, and you only benefit by starting the process now.
In conclusion, May 2024 witnessed a mix of trends in the GTA real estate market, presenting a balanced environment for both buyers and sellers alike. Despite fluctuations in sales compared to last year, there was a notable month-over-month decrease. The surge in new and active listings indicates a healthy influx of properties, while pricing trends remained relatively stable. With inventory levels maintaining a balance, the market is poised for potential changes depending on the upcoming interest rate adjustments. Looking ahead, proactive engagement will be key for both buyers and sellers to capitalize on emerging opportunities. At Jim Stanton & Associates, we're dedicated to providing the guidance and support necessary for navigating this dynamic landscape effectively.
Regardless of the statistics and the market, you have your own reasons for making a move. A big life event, ambitions, the need to upsize or downsize, or even relocate. The key is to ensure you have someone in your corner representing your best interests. Let us be your guide. Contact Us Today!
Originally published June 1, 2023. Updated for 2024
Hey foodies and adventurers! Brian here, one of my favourite foods is ribs. Sauced up and fall off the bone. I don't have them often but I almost always get some at one of Durham Region's Summer Ribfests. If you're a barbecue lover, you're in for a treat because Durham Region is heating up with its finger-licking, lip-smacking RibFest events now!
Durham Region's RibFest Events feature a mix of tantalizing barbecue and craft beer vendors from across the region and beyond. In addition to ribs and BBQ, many offer a wide array of food options, a midway experience full of rides and carnival games, craft beer options, and even shuttle services to get to and from the grounds.
Grab your napkins, mark your calendars, and get ready to embark on a mouthwatering journey through the region's finest rib festivals. Let's dive in!
Kicking off the rib-tastic extravaganza is Clarington RibFest! Enjoy mouthwatering ribs, a full midway experience plus tons of vendors. The family-friendly atmosphere and live music add to the festivities, making it the perfect event to kick off the summer with your family.
Pickering Rotary RibFest Date: June 14th to 16th, 2024 Location: 1 The Esplanade Park, Pickering.
If you missed out on Clarington that's okay. Next on the list is the next up is the Pickering RibFest is hosted by the Rotary Club of Pickering at near the Pickering Town Centre.
Uxbridge Ribfest Date: June 14th to 16th, 2024 Location: Elgin Park.
Uxbridge’s Ribfest features 4 of North America’s Best Rib Teams coming from Florida, Alabama, BC and Ontario. These “Pitmasters” are ready to serve you and your friends Award-Winning Mouth-Watering BBQ Smoked Ribs.
Whitby RibFest by Rotary Sunrise at Whitby Harbour! Like Clarington, enjoy a full midway experience and tons of marketplace vendors to shop, and a full line-up of live music all 3 days. Our good friend Bobby McBride from Investing with Bobby is coordinating the musical acts this year so it’s sure to be a hit. He’s even pulled together a custom playlist for in between acts. Check it out here.
Last but not least, The Oshawa RibFest is another can't-miss event! Located in the picturesque Lakeview Park in South Oshawa. Enjoy the ribs, vendors, and live entertainment all weekend long.
So there you have it, folks – a rundown of Durham Region's sizzling RibFest events! Whether you're a local foodie or just seeking delightful experiences, these festivals are a smokey and sweet BBQ journey you don't want to miss. Plan your visit, bring your family and your appetite, and get ready to feast on some of the best ribs around. Happy RibFest-ing!
Greetings, GTA homebuyers and sellers! As we step into May, it's time to reflect on the dynamic real estate landscape that unfolded throughout April 2024. Join us as we uncover the latest insights and trends from the past month, offering a clear perspective on what April's market stats mean for your real estate journey. At Jim Stanton & Associates, our commitment to providing you with valuable information remains steadfast. Let's explore together the opportunities and possibilities that await in the ever-evolving GTA market.
In April 2024, the GTA real estate market stabalized:
Sales Momentum: Compared to the same period last year, sales came down 5%. There was a month-over-month increase of 8.45%.
Listing Dynamics: New listings skyrocketed year-over-year increase of 47.2% and a month-over-month increase of 29.12%
Price Trends: The average price was stable increasiing 0.3% compared to last year and a with an increase of 3.08% from the previous month.
Slight Seller's Advantage: With 2.54 months of inventory available the market was more balanced. Sellers maintained a slight position of strength.
Time to Sell: Days on Market remained stable month-over-month and with listings taking a couple days more to sell year-over-year.
Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.
On April 10th. The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate. The next scheduled announcement is June 5th. While the Bank has not committed to any specific direction signs are positive that interest rates will be coming down in the future.
Buyers benefited from increased in inventory in April and a relatively consistent timeframe to buy although that varies from market to market. The key for buyers will be what happens in June when the Bank of Canada makes it’s next interest rate announcement. The marke is still competitive but it will get even busier if rates come down. Hopefully if that happens more would be sellers will decide to put their home on the market.
Is May your ideal time to buy?: If rates come down in June more buyers will undoubtedly hit the market and only the presence of a massive increase in sellers will keep pricing down.
First Time/Renters vs. Movers: Movers can handle a more competitive market because what they spend in their purchase they can also make up for in their sale. If you are a first time buyer or a renter looking to own you don’t have that advantage.
Despite a rise in sales and a surge in new listings, low inventory levels persist, intensifying buyer competition and fostering ample opportunities for sellers. While the spring market may be progressing, don't hesitate to act, even amidst the allure of awaiting more favorable mortgage rates. Consider this:
Start Now: If you want to make a move before the school bells ring next year now is the time to act. Get your home prepared to sell. Check out our informative Instagram Reel on this very topic HERE.
Preparation Meets Opportunity: Many sellers are waiting or rates to drop to make a move and that’s understandable. We all know rate relief is on the horizon so start today and be prepared to make your move ahead of the market.
In conclusion, April 2024 witnessed a stabilization in the GTA real estate market, presenting a balanced environment for both buyers and sellers alike. Despite fluctuations in sales compared to last year, there was notable momentum with an increase from the previous month. The surge in new listings indicates a healthy influx of properties, while pricing trends remained steady. With inventory levels maintaining a modest balance, sellers retained a slight advantage, yet the market remained competitive, particularly in anticipation of potential interest rate adjustments. Looking ahead, proactive engagement will be key for both buyers and sellers to capitalize on emerging opportunities. At Jim Stanton & Associates, we're dedicated to providing the guidance and support necessary for navigating this dynamic landscape effectively.
Regardless of the statistics and the market you have your own reasons for making a move. A big life event, ambitions, the need to upsize or downsize or even relocate. The key is to ensure you have someone in your corner representing your best interests. Let us be your guide. Contact Us Today!
Call Jim at 905 409 9967
Greetings, GTA homebuyers and sellers! As we reflect on the bustling real estate activities of March 2024, we're thrilled to share insights that paint a vivid picture of opportunity in our dynamic market. At Jim Stanton & Associates, our dedication to keeping you informed remains steadfast. Join us as we analyze the numbers from last month and explore what they mean for your future in real estate.
The GTA real estate market remained busy through March:
Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.
On March 6th the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 5% for the 6th consecutive time. The next announcement is on April 10th. While many predict rates to come down at some point in 2024 consensus seems to be the Bank of Canada will hold again for the 7th time on April 10th. We'll update this post when the news comes in.
What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?
Buyers will benefit from increases in inventory as the Spring Market chugs along but they now have less time to buy with Days on Market for many property types across the GTA coming down. To ensure success buyers should:
Be Ready to Act: Don't miss out on an opportunity. With homes selling faster be prepared with your financing so you can make that offer on your dream home.
Date the Rate: With rates expected to come down purchasing now will benefit you later in renewal. When rates do start to come down you can bet prices will go up.
Despite a rise in sales and a surge in new listings, low inventory levels persist, intensifying buyer competition and fostering ample opportunities for sellers. While the spring market may be progressing, don't hesitate to act, even amidst the allure of awaiting more favorable mortgage rates. Consider this:
Seize the Moment: Higher demand could fetch you a premium price, potentially offsetting any future price increases when rates drop. Consider leveraging this opportunity to maximize returns, not only on the sale of your current property but also on your next home.
Favorable Outlook: With prices continuing to climb and properties spending less time on the market, now is an opportune time to strategize your next move. Confidence is key as positive trends persist in the market."
In conclusion, March 2024 has unveiled a real estate landscape brimming with opportunities for both buyers and sellers across the GTA. Despite a slight dip in year-over-year sales, the market exhibited robust month-over-month growth, showcasing its resilience and dynamism. Sellers continue to enjoy favorable conditions with low inventory levels, while buyers can capitalize on the steady increase in available listings and stable pricing trends. As we eagerly anticipate the Bank of Canada's upcoming announcement on interest rates, it's imperative for buyers to act swiftly and sellers to seize the moment. Whether you're looking to enter the market or make a move, staying informed and proactive will be key to achieving your real estate goals in the months ahead. At Jim Stanton & Associates, we remain dedicated to guiding you through every step of your journey with expertise and insight.
Regardless of the statistics and the market you have your own reasons for making a move. A big life event, ambitions, the need to upsize or downsize or even relocate. The key is to ensure you have someone in your corner representing your best interests. Let us be your guide. Contact Us Today!
In February 2024, the GTA real estate market witnessed notable shifts:
Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town
February 2024 Market Stats Durham
In a landscape where competition is heating up, but inventory is also rising (just not outpacing sales any longer). preparation is key. To capitalize on opportunities, buyers should:
With increasing inventory and the promise of even more homes hitting the market in the spring, now is an opportune time for buyers who are ready to make their move. By staying informed and prepared, buyers can navigate the competitive landscape with confidence and find the perfect home to suit their needs.
While the market is currently favoring sellers, it's important to note that nothing is guaranteed. With the significant increase in new listings—up by 33.5% year-over-year and 37% month-over-month—buyers now have more options available to them. Consequently, not every home will attract multiple offers.
To position your home for success in this competitive landscape, focus on:
By prioritizing these key factors, you can increase the likelihood of receiving multiple offers and securing the highest and best price for your home.
At Jim Stanton & Associates, we're here to provide guidance and support tailored to your unique needs. Our team is dedicated to offering personalized assistance in preparing, pricing, and promoting your home based on current market dynamics. Let us be your trusted partners as you navigate the exciting journey of buying or selling real estate in the GTA.
As we navigate the dynamic GTA real estate market, it's evident that opportunities abound for both buyers and sellers alike. With informed decisions and strategic guidance, you can make the most of these opportunities and achieve your real estate objectives. Reach out to Jim Stanton & Associates today, and let's embark on this journey together, ensuring your success every step of the way.
Contact US
February 2024 Market Stats Markham and Stouffville
As the chill of winter fades away and the freshness of spring beckons, it's time to give your home a revitalizing makeover.
Neglecting spring cleaning tasks in March can lead to a range of issues, including increased allergens, pest infestations, decreased indoor air quality, decreased appliance lifespan, unpleasant odors, and visual discomfort. Regular maintenance and cleaning are essential for a healthy, comfortable, and enjoyable living environment.
Spring cleaning isn't just about tidying up; it's a chance to refresh and rejuvenate your living space.
Declutter Every Room: Start by decluttering each room in your home. Rid yourself of items you no longer need or use. Donate, recycle, or discard as necessary. Decluttering not only makes your space look better but also promotes mental clarity and calmness.
Deep Clean Floors: Give your floors some love by deep cleaning them. Vacuum carpets thoroughly, paying attention to corners and under furniture. For hardwood or tile floors, mop with a gentle cleaner to remove dirt and grime.
Dust and Polish Surfaces: Dust accumulates over the winter months, so it's time to banish it. Dust all surfaces, including shelves, tables, and light fixtures. Don't forget to polish wood furniture for a gleaming finish.
Wash Windows and Treatments: Let the spring sunshine in by cleaning your windows inside and out. Remember, it's best to avoid washing windows on sunny days as the sunlight can cause streaks. Instead, choose an overcast day for streak-free results. Don't overlook window treatments like curtains or blinds – give them a good wash or vacuum to remove dust and allergens.
Deep Clean Kitchen Appliances: Your kitchen appliances have likely seen a lot of action during the winter holidays. Give them a thorough cleaning inside and out. Don't forget the refrigerator coils and oven racks!
Freshen Up Bedding and Mattresses: Wash all bedding, including sheets, pillowcases, and duvet covers. Take this opportunity to rotate and flip mattresses for even wear and tear.
Organize Closets and Storage Spaces: Take stock of your closets and storage areas. Donate unused clothing and accessories, and organize what's left. Invest in storage solutions like bins or baskets to maximize space.
Clean and Inspect HVAC Systems: As the weather warms up, it's a good time to clean or replace HVAC filters. Schedule a professional inspection and maintenance service to ensure your heating and cooling systems are running efficiently.
Refresh Bathroom Fixtures: Scrub bathroom surfaces, including sinks, toilets, and tubs. Replace worn-out shower curtains or liners, and stock up on essential toiletries for a fresh start to spring.
Tidy Outdoor Spaces: Don't forget about the exterior of your home! Sweep pathways, clean outdoor furniture, and spruce up your garden or patio. Trim bushes and trees as needed to welcome the new season.
By tackling these 10 essential tasks for spring cleaning in March, you'll not only enjoy a cleaner and more organized home but also set the stage for a vibrant and refreshing spring season ahead. Happy cleaning!
Central Oshawa is on the brink of a remarkable transformation, and for prospective homebuyers, there couldn't be a more opportune moment to invest in this thriving community.
Central Oshawa is set to undergo a monumental redevelopment with plans for a sprawling 17.7-acre project situated directly south of the forthcoming Central Oshawa GO Train Station. This ambitious venture will see the emergence of 8-15 new buildings, encompassing a staggering 5,600 residential units and 70,000 square feet of retail and commercial space, all nestled alongside an inviting urban park. The scale of this development is unprecedented and promises to infuse the area with newfound vitality and dynamism.
The proposed project represents a significant step towards establishing Central Oshawa as a vibrant, mixed-use, transit-oriented neighborhood. With future regional rapid transit connectivity in the pipeline, the stage is set for a wave of community investment and growth. The inclusion of residential towers, street-level commercial establishments, and expansive green spaces underscores a commitment to fostering a diverse and sustainable urban environment.
SEE THE AREA ON OUR INSTAGRAM FEEDAs part of the Lakeshore East Expansion Project, Central Oshawa is slated to welcome a brand-new GO Train Station. This station will be nestled between Simcoe St. S. and Ritson Rd. S., will serve as a pivotal multi-modal transportation hub, offering seamless connectivity for commuters and residents alike. With rush hour service every 30 minutes, commuters can look forward to trimming 15 minutes off their daily travel time, enhancing both convenience and accessibility.
Moreover, the new station is poised to catalyze revitalization efforts in the surrounding area, positioning Central Oshawa as a thriving transit-oriented hub. From providing a vital link to the regional transit system to accommodating the diverse needs of students and the workforce, this station promises to be a transformative addition to the community.
In summary, the impending redevelopment of Central Oshawa heralds a new era of opportunity and growth for prospective homeowners. With the prospect of a vibrant mixed-use community taking shape and enhanced transit infrastructure on the horizon, Central Oshawa is primed to emerge as a sought-after destination for residents and investors alike. By seizing the opportunity to invest in this burgeoning locale now, homeowners stand to benefit from the immense value appreciation and enriched quality of life that this transformative redevelopment promises to deliver. The time to embrace the promise of Central Oshawa's future is now.
Connect with our team to learn about your buying options in Central Oshawa, what home values are like, and how you can take advantage of this opportunity as a homeowner or investor. Contact US
In January 2024, the average selling price of homes across the GTA experienced a one percent year-over-year decline, settling at $1,026,703 according to The MLS® Home Price Index Composite.
Home sales increased compared to the same month in 2023. This rise was partly due to certain homebuyers taking advantage of lower interest rates linked to fixed-rate mortgages.
New property listings also saw a year-over-year increase, the growth rate was lower than that of home sales resulting in tighter market conditions, compared to the previous year, suggesting the possibility of renewed price growth as we transition into the spring market.
The increased demand, coupled with a more modest increase in available homes, may contribute to a potential uptick in housing prices.
Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town
January 2024 Market Stats Durham
Last month we proposed the ways our housing market could go in 2024 largely hinging on the potential for mortgage rates to come down based on a reduction in the Bank of Canada's (BoC) policy and that of the fixed-rate bond market.
Well if January is any indication a return to a Seller's Market is imminent. With the BoC pausing rates for the 4th consecutive decision in January and fixed rates looking more favorable buyers have gotten a head start on the Spring Market.
What we are seeing on the ground
In a market characterized by both increased sales and a surge in property listings, home buyers and sellers find themselves navigating a dynamic and competitive landscape.
The spike in listings provides buyers with a broader array of options, but the heightened demand, particularly in the lower price range, has resulted in more properties receiving multiple offers. Despite the competitive atmosphere, there remains ample opportunity for savvy buyers to find a suitable property and engage in negotiations.
Sellers, on the other hand, are benefiting from the renewed demand, potentially receiving more attractive offers. Overall, the market's equilibrium between increased sales and listings creates an environment where both buyers and sellers must adapt to changing dynamics while recognizing opportunities for successful transactions.
January 2024 Market Stats Markham Stouffeville
2023 Summary for the GTA
Home sales were down in 2023 buyers who stuck it out through higher interest rates in 2023 benefited from more choice and more negotiating power which resulted in paying lower prices when compared to 2023.
Home Sales saw a 12.1 per cent dip compared to 2022.
Average sold prices across home types in 2023 saw a 5.4 per cent decline compared to 2022 bringing average sold price down to $1,126,604.
There is little consensus on the future of the real estate market in 2024. Aside from the fact that most experts expect some relief in the Bank of Canada’s Policy rate which should help with borrowing costs for homeowners and would-be buyers. Experts are divided on exactly when, how many and how big an impact interest rate cuts will have.
The main factors affecting real estate forecasts in 2024.
When and how much will the BoC reduce its policy rate in 2024? (2024 BoC announcement schedule)
Will changes in variable and fixed rate mortgages be enough to bring buyers back?
How will homeowners up for renewal deal with rising financing costs?
2 Potential Outcomes and Everything in Between
If interest rates do come down in 2024 we will see more buyers enter the market. The question is, how many rate cuts could we see and how low could rates go? In March of 2023 a mere pause at 4.5% sent us back into a brief Sellers Market. If that happens again buyers who stay on the fence will regret it. It’s unlikely that we see the kind of pandemic sales we saw but it remains possible that the combination of high immigration, rising rent costs and lower interest rates increases competition for homes in 2024.
An environment with modestly lower interest rates could yield a continuation of the current balanced market. This is especially true if inventory remains at 3-4 months worth. Sellers looking to downsize, move up or relocate may be more likely to move when interest rates drop and sellers who are renewing mortgages at a cost that may be too high might decide to sell. This would bring more homes on the market and offset any increases in demand. This seems like the safe bet and most likely outcome to us.
The other possibility is for those who love bad news. According to RateHub.ca 80% of all mortgages that were outstanding as of March 2022 will come up for renewal in 2024. That means those borrowers will be renewing at a much higher rate. Per Statistics Canada, mortgage interest payments have soared by nearly 90% since March 2022. Some are forecasting a high volume of distressed sales which if enough homes come on the market without buyers continue to put downward pressure on home prices throughout 2024. This inventory of course would have to outpace demand from new buyers entering the market as interest rates come down. Another factor of note is that for 2024 alone this pool only represents 14% of all mortgages in Canada which relative to the total number of homeowners is very small and Canada’s mortgage stress test will have buffered some of the risk for many of these homeowners.
For our part the most likely scenario is a balanced market where the push/pull effect of higher interest rates pushing some buyers off and some sellers in while immigration and a slow reduction in interest rates bolster demand could offset one another enough to balance the market in 2024.
That said if interest rates become too attractive and more buyers enter the market we could see competition for homes pick-up in 2024.
What do you think will happen in 2024?